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| 2018-10-26 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社伦敦报道，国际能源署（IEA）周四称，由于燃料效率的提高和电动汽车的发展可能削弱需求，并削弱他们的财政，全球最大的石油和天然气生产商正面临前所未有的压力，以减少对能源收入的依赖。 IEA警告说，如果不采取行动或实现收入来源多样化的努力失败，将会增加生产国和全球市场面临的风险。 国际能源署主任Fatih Birol说：“我认为，这些国家的发展模式需要从根本上改变，这比近代历史上任何时候都需要。” 一些结构性因素，如美国页岩油产量的激增，已经给石油生产国的预算带来了压力。页岩油产量正在从供应方面抢占沙特阿拉伯或尼日利亚等竞争对手的市场份额，以及减少化石燃料使用以减缓需求方气候变化的努力，石油生产商的预算已经面临压力。 Birol说，以每桶80美元的石油价格计算，这些国家的石油和天然气收入平均每年约为人均1800美元。但随着页岩气的出现，以及对新技术和效率等需求的发展，到2030年，这笔收入可能会跌至1250美元，降幅为30%。 他说：“我们观察这些国家，它们的政府收入平均从石油和天然气中获得超过70%，这些国家受到价格的压力，出口石油数量的压力，以及人口增长的压力……我们认为这与过去大不相同。” IEA表示，它特别关注伊拉克、尼日利亚、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和委内瑞拉。 该机构就能源政策向西方政府提供咨询意见，根据其“新政策设想”，到2040年，石油需求将增长10%，每天将超过1.06亿桶。同期天然气需求增长40%以上，达到5.4万亿立方米。 IEA 表示："在油价下降的环境中，风险成倍增加。在石油价格维持在每桶60-70美元的情况下，石油和天然气净收入从未恢复到2010-2015年的水平，与新政策情景相比，在2040年之前，收入累计损失7万亿美元”。 Birol说，尤其是中东的出口商，可以致力于减少国内原油消费。 他说：“在中东，他们每天使用大约200万桶的石油来发电，经济上，这是非常低效的。”"这就像用（奢侈的）香水来开车。" 该机构表示，成功的改革将对能源市场和实现全球环境目标的努力产生多重影响。 詹晓晶摘自路透社 原文如下： More than ever, big oil exporters must diversify economies: IEA The world’s biggest oil and gas producers are under unprecedented pressure to cut their reliance on energy revenues, as advances in fuel efficiencies and electric vehicles threaten to undercut demand and erode their finances, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday. It warned that inaction or unsuccessful efforts to diversify sources of income would compound the risks facing both producer economies and global markets. “More than at any other point in recent history, I believe there needs to be fundamental change in the development models of those countries,” IEA director Fatih Birol said. Structural factors such as the boom in U.S. shale oil production, which is taking market share from rivals such as Saudi Arabia or Nigeria on the supply side, and efforts to reduce fossil fuel use to slow climate change on the demand side, are already putting oil producers’ budgets under pressure. Birol said that at an oil price of $80 a barrel, oil and gas revenues for these countries were on average around $1,800 per capita per year. But that with shale coming into the picture and demand developments such as new technology and efficiencies, that could fall to $1,250 by 2030, a 30 percent drop. “When we look at these countries, on average they get more than 70 percent of their government revenues from oil and gas,” he said. “Those are under pressure from prices, they are under pressure from the amount of oil they export and under pressure from population growth ... We think it is very different from the past.” The IEA said it looked in particular at Iraq, Nigeria, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The agency, which advises western governments on energy policy, sees oil demand growing by 10 percent to more than 106 million barrels per day by 2040 under its “New Policies Scenario”, and natural gas demand increasing by over 40 percent to 5,400 billion cubic meters in the same period. “The risks multiply in a lower oil price environment. In a case in which oil prices settle in a $60-70 a barrel range, net oil and gas income never recovers to 2010-15 levels, leading to a cumulative $7 trillion loss in revenue over the period to 2040 compared with the New Policies Scenario,” the IEA said. Birol said Middle East exporters in particular could work toward cutting their domestic consumption of crude oil. “In the Middle East, they use around 2 million bpd of oil every day to generate electricity and economically, this is very inefficient to say the least,” he said. “This is like using (luxury) perfume to run a car.” The agency said successful reforms would have multiple implications for energy markets and for efforts to reach global environmental goals.
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