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| 2018-11-07 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据WENews.com网站11月5日休斯顿报道，Golar液化天然气（LNG）公司日前公布的统计数据显示，由美国新增LNG运输量为主的LNG 贸易预计将每年以10%的速度增长，从2017年的2.9亿吨增加到2020年的大约3.88亿吨。 据行业分析人士所说，在同一时间内，吨英里需求预计将增加40%以上。从现在到2020年，每年5%的船队增长将不足以满足这一需求增长。 主要经纪商继续预计运输LNG的船舶数到2020年将短缺30-40艘。到今天为止，全球范围内只有极少数船只可以使用，并且在2021年前不再可能交付所订购的船只。数月或数年的合同继续给费率带来上行压力。 美国LNG产量不断增加、俄罗斯亚马尔T2项目的投产加之亚洲需求强劲以及吨英里数不断增加已促使多家公司在夏季降温季节到来之前签订了数月乃至数年的船只租约。 船舶可用性的下降以及费率上升一度超过了2017年冬季的高点。由于终端用户需求强劲和油价上涨推动了LNG价格上涨、船舶固定装置和即期费率逼近10万美元/天。 新建船只交付也开始下降，而太平洋盆地固定装置的商业条款自2014年第三季度以来首次超过了大西洋盆地。由于受到来自中国和韩国的强劲需求的驱动，JKM和欧洲天然气价格分别同比上涨了86%和43%。 李峻 编译自 WENews.com 原文如下： LNG Trade to Increase by 10% to 388 million tons in 2020 Dominated by new US volumes, LNG trade is expected to increase by 10% per annum from 290 million tons in 2017 to around 388 million tons in 2020, said Golar LNG. According to industry analysts, ton mile demand is expected to increase by 40+% over the same time frame. Annual fleet growth of 5% through to 2020, will, according to industry analysts, not be sufficient to meet this demand. Leading brokers continue to expect a 30-40 vessel shortfall. As of today there are minimal prompt available vessels worldwide and it is no longer possible to order a vessel for delivery before 2021. Multi-month and multi-year contracts continue to present themselves adding upward pressure on rates. Increasing US LNG production and start-up of Yamal T2 together with strong Asian demand and rising ton miles prompted a number of multi-month and multi-year charters ahead of the summer cooling season. Vessel availability declined and rates increased, briefly surpassing their 2017 winter highs. Activity then eased over the summer months before regaining its positive momentum in September as strong end-user demand and rising oil prices fed through to increasing LNG prices, vessel fixtures, and spot rates approaching $100,000 per day. Newbuild deliveries also began to decline and commercial terms for Pacific basin fixtures exceeded those in the Atlantic for the first time since 3Q 2014. JKM and European gas prices ended the quarter up 86% and 43% respectively year-on-year, once again driven by strong demand from China and Korea.
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