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| 2018-11-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社伦敦报道，随着需求飙升，LNG生产商建造出口终端的竞争正在展开，但随着与LNG消费者的传统关系开始瓦解，此类大型项目的融资标准已经发生了变化。 荷兰皇家壳牌上个月为加拿大一个300亿美元LNG项目所做的最终投资决定，是对LNG行业的一次冲击，该行业正在摆脱近三年的低价格和低投资。 作为对LNG市场的信任投票，壳牌公司的决定有望推动全球数十项类似项目的批准浪潮，这些项目已规划多年，但尚未最终敲定。 但是最终投资决定代表了一个不同的融资结构，不像以前的大型项目那样依赖于大买家的承诺，比如最近在澳大利亚启用的Ichthys设施或美国的Sabine Pass工厂。 相反，壳牌将把成本纳入其预算，并实际上担心最终的买家——作为世界上最大的LNG公司之一，壳牌可以将新发行的LNG纳入其全球投资组合。 LNG的需求已经存在，预计到2030年，LNG的年需求量将增加一倍达到每年5.5亿吨，这就为更多的出口终端留出了空间，尽管新的终端（主要是美国的）供应正在大量涌入。 但由于世界上最大的买家——日本和韩国，寻求更灵活的条款，而印度和巴基斯坦等其他国家的信誉较差，这些项目一直难以找到买家。 除了美国在建项目的5000万吨LNG贮备外，美国还有17个像德州LNG这样的新码头需要最终投资决定。从卡塔尔的扩张到俄罗斯和莫桑比克以及东南亚的工厂，其他计划也遍布全球。 在所有这些项目中，只有少数几个项目最终将在美国建成，而对于其他项目，运营商吸收LNG进入其投资组合的能力将是关键。 无论价格如何，长期承诺在今天都是有风险的，因为随着全球LNG市场的增长和流动性的增加，它正在经历根本性的变化。 市场需要解决传统上与石油相关的LNG定价机制等难题，并吸收改变天然气交易商业计算的新技术。 惠誉解决方案公司的LNG分析师Emma Richards称：“整个市场正处于中间阶段，LNG正变得越来越像石油，其现货和流动性交易都比基准指标高，但这是一个漫长的过程，而且令人头疼。” 这使得壳牌公司、道达尔和埃克森美孚等大型投资组合公司的项目更容易最终完成，后者已承诺明年在莫桑比克和德克萨斯州进行最终投资决定。 就美国的项目而言，该领域正变得越来越紧，全球最大的LNG出口国卡塔尔石油表示，与埃克森美孚合作的Golden Pass项目的最终投资决定将在未来几个月内做出。 卡塔尔自身的巨大扩张，预计将在明年获得最终投资决定，将把LNG产能从目前的每年7700万吨提高到每年11000万吨。 詹晓晶摘自路透社 原文如下： In race to fill LNG supply gap, project goalposts have changed The race is on for liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers to build export terminals as demand soars, but the criteria for financing such mega-projects have shifted as traditional relationships with LNG consumers have begun to disintegrate. Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDSa.AS) final investment decision (FID) taken last month for a $30 billion LNG Canada project was a shot in the arm for the LNG industry, which is emerging from almost three years of low prices and investment. As a vote of confidence in the LNG market, Shell’s decision is expected to get the ball rolling on a wave of approvals for dozens of similar projects around the world that have been planned for years but not yet finalized. But the FID represented a different financing structure, unreliant on commitments from large buyers as previous mega-projects had been, such as the recently commissioned Ichthys facility in Australia or the U.S. Sabine Pass plant. Instead, Shell will absorb the cost into its budget and will effectively worry about the ultimate buyers later - as one of the largest corporate purchasers of LNG in the world, it can absorb the new volumes into its global portfolio. Demand for LNG is there - it is expected almost to double to 550 million tonnes a year (mtpa) by 2030, leaving room for plenty more export terminals despite an influx of fresh supply from new, mostly U.S., terminals. But projects have struggled to find offtakers as the world’s biggest buyers in Japan and South Korea seek nimbler terms while others such as India and Pakistan are less creditworthy. Aside from 50 mtpa of supply due from U.S. projects under construction, 17 new U.S. terminals like Texas LNG need FIDs. Other plans dot the world from Qatar’s expansion to plants in Russia and Mozambique as well as Southeast Asia. Of all these projects, only a handful in the United States will ultimately be built and for others, the ability for the operator to absorb LNG into its portfolio will be key. Irrespective of price, long-term offtake commitments are risky today because the global LNG market is undergoing fundamental changes as it grows and increases liquidity. It needs to solve quandaries such as the pricing mechanism for LNG, traditionally linked to oil, and absorb new technology that shifts the commercial calculations of trading the gas. “The whole market is in an in-between phase,” LNG analyst Emma Richards at Fitch Solutions said. “LNG is becoming more akin to oil with greater spot and liquidity trading referencing benchmarks, but it’s a long process and it’s creating headaches.” This makes projects by large portfolio players such as Shell, Total (TOTF.PA) and Exxon, which has promised FIDs in Mozambique and Texas next year, easier to finalize. For U.S. projects, the field is getting tighter - Qatar Petroleum, the world’s largest exporter of LNG, said an FID for the Golden Pass project with Exxon was due in the next few months. Qatar’s own huge expansion, expected to get FID next year, would increase capacity to 110 mtpa from current production rates of 77 mtpa.
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