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| 2018-11-27 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯 据消息人士称，随着天然气价格飙升,加之西北欧（CIF ARA）市场迅速贬值，美国热煤卖家一度获利丰厚的套利交易已告结束。 一位欧洲交易员说：“CAPP（阿巴拉契亚中部的煤炭）仍然留在美国，但这里是不会赚钱的。” 美国的天然气储量比五年平均水平低15%-30%，再加上最近的寒流，导致了天然气市场的恐慌和价格的过度调整。 周三1月份亨利枢纽天然气价格为4.451美元/百万英热，这是合同连续第七个交易日价格超过4美元/百万英热。 一位欧洲公用事业交易员表示：“由于油价上涨，难怪这些美国交易员想在国内销售。” 根据美国能源信息数据，2018年前七个月，CAPP煤的平均交付成本为70.56美元/英石，或 2.87美元/百万英热。在平均工厂效率为10045英热/千瓦时时，CAPP煤的平均调度价格为28.82美元/兆瓦时。 与此同时，4美元/百万英热的天然气以及7652英热/千瓦时的平均工厂效率导致30.61美元/兆瓦时的调度价格。 另一位欧洲交易员表示：“我们的市场卖给了一家美国煤炭生产商。”他补充称，欧洲买家最近很难在美国煤炭市场上占据一个有利的位置。 一位生产商说：“如果你能当场出售给美国，那你一定会的，否则，如果你们已经以期货的形式卖出，那就不那么简单了，除非你们可以解除合同义务。” 王磊 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Surging natural gas hub prices alongside a rapidly depreciating CIF ARA market has closed a once lucrative arbitrage for US thermal coal sellers into Europe, sources said. "CAPP (Central Appalachian coal) is staying in the states," a European trader said. "It would not make money over here." Gas storage in the US has been 15%-30% below five-year average which, combined with the recent cold spell, led to panic in the gas market and an over-correction in prices. The January Henry Hub gas price settled at $4.451/MMBtu Wednesday, the seventh straight trading session the contract priced over $4/MMBtu. "With gas prices where they are, no wonder the guys (US traders) want to sell domestically," a European utility trader said. According to US Energy Information data, CAPP coal's average delivered cost was $70.56/st, or $2.87/MMBtu, in the first seven months of 2018. At an average plant efficiency of 10,045 Btu/kWh, the average dispatch price for CAPP coal was $28.82/MWh. Meanwhile, gas at $4/MMBtu and an average plant efficiency of 7,652 Btu/kWh results in a dispatch price of $30.61/MWh. "We had a position we sold back to a US producer," another European trader said, adding that buyers in Europe have struggled to take a long position on US coal recently. "If you can sell on the spot to the US, you will," a producer trader said. "Otherwise it is not as simple if you have already sold on a forward basis, unless you can undo your contractual obligations."
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