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| 2018-12-04 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯12月3日新加坡消息称，由于原油价格下跌、下游需求疲软以及华东地区库存增加，上周五中国苯乙烯单体成本加运费跌至30个月以来的低点，跌破每吨1000美元大关，至每吨983.5美元，而目前疲弱的基本面预计将在近期继续对市场构成压力。 普氏公布的数据显示，上一次的低价是在2016年5月30日，当时中国成本加运费为982美元/吨。 源源不断的深海货物导致华东地区库存不断增加。市场消息人士称，上周五华东地区苯乙烯库存增加至98200吨，较10月末增加38700吨，去年同期增加56900吨。 由于原料市场下跌，亚洲苯乙烯利润率依然保持在正数区间，这将继续保持苯乙烯工厂相对较高的运营率。 普氏数据显示，截至上周五，亚洲苯乙烯单体利润率为28.50美元/吨，比前一天上涨1美元/吨。亚洲苯乙烯利润率较今年年中下降逾200美元/吨。 由于全球对苯的需求放缓，供应不断增长，亚洲苯价格在上周五跌至两年低位。FOB韩国苯的评估价为634美元/吨，中国成本加运费评估价为650美元/吨。普氏数据显示，上一次韩国基准评估离岸低价发生在2016年10月18日，为633美元/吨。 近期所有芳烃产品的价格都明显走软，但大多数市场参与者仍然对苯需求在农历新年时复苏的可能性持乐观态度，在此期间价格通常会飙升。 虽然终端用户之前认为韩国苯的离岸价有可能跌至600美元/吨，但一位交易商周五晚些时候表示，这还有“很长的一段路要走”，而且可能会受到中国东部地区价格触及每吨5000元的影响。 普氏能源资讯显示，在乙烯市场，自11月中旬以来，CFR东北亚乙烯市场现货价格一直在迅速下跌，至每吨950美元。 由于衍生品利润率下降，尤其是聚乙烯，亚洲乙烯需求一直在迅速下降。普氏数据显示，上周五，聚乙烯和乙烯价格之间的价差计算为80美元/吨，低于150美元/吨的典型盈亏平衡价差。 另一方面，由于亚洲的蒸汽裂解业务乙烯利润率为正值下仍保持高位，因此乙烯现货供应充足。上周五亚洲乙烯和石脑油价差为463美元/吨，较上一交易日下跌65.25美元/吨，但仍高于300至350美元/吨的盈亏平衡价差。 市场消息人士称：“与原料石脑油和衍生品价格相比，目前亚洲乙烯价格过高。乙烯价格还有很大的下降空间。” 曹海斌 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Asian styrene likely to remain bearish after hitting 30-month low Styrene monomer prices slid to a 30-month low last Friday, falling below the $1,000/mt mark to $983.50/mt CFR China on tumbling crude oil prices, soft downstream demand and rising inventories in East China, with current weak fundamentals expected to continue weighing on the market in the near term. Prices were last assessed lower on May 30, 2016 at $982/mt CFR China, S&P Global Platts data showed. A steady stream of deepsea cargoes resulted in a continuous buildup of stocks in East China. Styrene inventories in East China ballooned to 98,200 mt last Friday, up 38,700 mt from late October and 56,900 mt from the same period last year, according to market sources. Still, Asian styrene margins remain in positive territory due to falling feedstock markets, which will continue to keep operating rates at styrene plants relatively high. As of last Friday, Asian styrene monomer margin is calculated at $28.50/mt, up $1/mt from a day before, Platts data showed. Asian styrene margins have narrowed more than $200/mt from the middle of this year. Benzene prices in Asia slipped to a two-year low last Friday amid growing supply as global demand for benzene slowed. FOB Korea benzene was assessed at $634/mt and CFR China at $650/mt. The FOB Korea benchmark was last assessed lower on October 18, 2016 at $633/mt, Platts data showed. The recent price weakness is evident across all aromatics, but most market participants remain optimistic on the potential for benzene demand to recover nearing the Lunar New Year, during which prices usually spike. While end-users had earlier thought it possible that benzene prices could fall below $600/mt FOB Korea, a trader said late Friday that it was still a "long way to go," and would likely be led by domestic East China prices hitting Yuan 5,000/mt. On the ethylene market, spot prices have been falling quickly since mid-November to $950/mt CFR Northeast Asia, Platts data showed. Asian ethylene demand has been fading quickly amid narrowing derivatives margins, notably polyethylene. Last Friday, the spread between polyethylene and ethylene prices was calculated at $80/mt, lower than a typical breakeven spread of $150/mt, Platts data showed. On the other hand, spot ethylene supply is ample as steam cracker operations in Asia remain high amid positive ethylene margins. Asian ethylene-naphtha spread is calculated at $463/mt last Friday, down $65.25/mt from a day before but still higher than a breakeven spread of $300-$350/mt. "Asian ethylene is currently overpriced compared to feedstock naphtha and derivatives prices. There is more room that ethylene prices would come down," a market source said.
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