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| 2018-12-14 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据OGJ网12月12日消息 石油卡特尔欧佩克周三表示，对美国陆上部门的投资、巴西的新项目以及英国较高的产量，可能推动2019年非欧佩克成员国的原油供应增长，尽管北美的运输瓶颈持续使形势复杂化。 2018年，非欧佩克成员国的石油供应增幅升至250万桶/日，原因是俄罗斯和北美的石油供应增幅高于预期，美国紧缩的石油日供应量达到213万桶/日。 根据欧佩克11月份的《月度石油市场报告》，预计2019年非欧佩克的供应量增长至216万桶/日，较上月估计下降8万桶/日。 下降幅度远小于上周在峰会上达成的40万桶/日的非欧佩克减产协议，表明欧佩克预计一些非欧佩克成员国的生产率增长将超过签署最新协议的成员国的减产。 欧佩克和10个非欧佩克伙伴国上周同意原油日产量削减120万桶，预计将于2019年1月敲定，最初将持续6个月。 欧佩克补充称，目前很难做出非欧佩克国家的供应预测，其中可能设定增加或减少供应总量的因素。 欧佩克说：“明年的预测将面临相当大的不确定性，特别是关于美国页岩生产率的持续提高、二叠纪盆地和加拿大西部的石油运输瓶颈以及预计其他非欧佩克国家将实施的项目。” 对冲基金和其他投资者由于担心供过于求，已将布伦特和WTI的长期头寸降至一年多来的最低水平。 明年全球原油需求增幅预计为129万桶/日,与欧佩克上月预估持平,但低于2018年预计的150万桶/日的增幅. 欧佩克预计，2019年原油需求将维持在3140万桶/日，较2018年的预测下降约100万桶/日。 物价仍不稳定，在11月份触及2014年10月以来最高点后，跌至一年多来的最低水平。 原油市场价格螺旋式下跌之际，供应预期和市场疲软因贸易紧张和对冲基金抛售而加剧。 欧佩克最近达成协议后，油价几天来出现反弹，布伦特原油期货价格突破每桶60美元的门槛。 王磊 摘译自 OGJ 原文如下： Investment in the US onshore sector, new projects in Brazil and higher output in the UK are likely to drive non-OPEC crude oil supply growth in 2019, although North American transportation bottlenecks continue to complicate the picture, oil cartel OPEC said on Wednesday. Oil supply growth from non-OPEC countries rose to 2.5m bbl/day in 2018 on the back of higher-than-expected gains in Russia and North America, with US tight oil accounting for 2.13m bbl/day of the total. Non-OPEC supply growth for 2019 is projected at 2.16m bbl/day, according to OPEC’s November Monthly Oil Market Report, a downward revision of 80,000 bbl/day from the previous month’s estimate. The downward revision is significantly less than the 400,000 bbl/day non-OPEC production cuts agreed at a summit last week, indicating that the cartel expects productivity increases by some non-OPEC states to outstrip reductions by signatories to the latest deal. OPEC and 10 non-OPEC partner states agreed crude oil production cuts of 1.2m bbl/day last week, expected to be finalised in January 2019, and initially set to last for six months. Non-OPEC supply forecasts are difficult to make at present, OPEC added, with factors potentially set to increase or decrease that total. “The forecast for the next year is subject to considerable uncertainties, particularly with regard to continued improvements in the productivity of US shale, oil transportation bottlenecks in the Permian Basin and Western Canada, and expected projects coming on-stream in other non-OPEC countries,” OPEC said. Hedge funds and other investors have reduced their long-term positions on Brent and WTI to the lowest levels in over a year on the back of oversupply fears. Global crude demand growth is expected at 1.29m bbl/day next year, unchanged from OPEC’s estimates last month but down from the projected 1.5m bbl/day increase posted in 2018. OPEC crude oil demand is expected to stand at 31.4m bbl/day in 2019, around 1m bbl/day down from 2018 estimates. Pricing remains volatile, dropping to the lowest levels in over a year in November after hitting the highest point since 2014 in October. The crude oil market's price downward spiral came as supply expectations and market weakness were exacerbated by trade tensions and hedge fund sell-offs. Prices have rallied in the days following the latest OPEC accord, with Brent crude futures pricing breaking the $60/bbl barrier.
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