|2018-12-24 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
吴慧丹 摘译自 ICIS
Crude oil demand to slow on tighter liquidity, higher risk of down cycle
The cartel and its leader Saudi Arabia may not have the influence they had a decade ago, but 2018 has shown, if anything, that they remained critically important to global crude prices.
OPEC producers still own an enormous part of global supply, even if Russia and the US have since caught up.
The cartel’s decision to start cutting global supply by 1.2m bbl/day from January will help the market re-balance in the first half of 2019, but it might prove insufficient afterwards.
At present, oil is stuck in a bear market and investors are concerned that record US production, now in excess of 11m bbl/day, and a skittish fuel market may drag on demand.
US oil remains the wild card in 2019, being no party to any supply agreement.
US shale drillers have proved more responsive to price swings than big oil, but their aggregate response is extremely difficult to gauge since they do not coordinate their supply decisions.
Data on rig productivity is produced with a one-two month lag, and often followed by huge revisions in the next six or 12 months.
Likewise, consumption responds to changes in price with a six-to-18-month lag. By the time demand destruction becomes visible, it is too late and prices will have risen too much.
Lower oil prices are likely to boost demand, but OPEC’s efforts will have little bearing on the global economy.