澳大利亚预计明年液化天然气出口将增加

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价12月21日消息，澳大利亚工业部发布的《资源与能源季报》表示，在2018年下半年澳大利亚另外三座大型海上设施投产后，澳大利亚可能在截至2019年6月底的下一个财年出口更多液化天然气。

继雪佛龙和伍德赛德的惠斯通液化天然气项目和Inpex的Ichthys项目投产后，工业部预计该国下一财年的液化天然气出口总量将达到7490万吨。在截至2020年6月底的下一个财政年度，该部预计将进一步增加到7830万吨。

然而，2018/2019财年的预测假设壳牌的Prelude项目将按计划在今年年底前投产。然而，壳牌尚未宣布在Prelude项目已经进行商业化生产。

惠斯通在开始生产时，澳大利亚的总液化天然气产能增加了890万吨，Ichthys项目又使澳大利亚总产能增加了890万吨。当它开始生产后，Prelude将每年增加360万吨液化天然气。

然而，根据工业部的数据，虽然出口量将会继续增长，但从它们那里获得的收益可能不会出现这种情况。

《资源与能源季刊》称：“随着全球大宗商品供应的改善，这些大宗商品价格预计将在未来一段时间内小幅下跌。这些价格下跌将大大抵消同期出口量增长的影响，导致2019 - 2020年出口收入小幅下降。然而，出口收益仍应远高于2017 - 2018年的水平，这反映了资源和能源商品市场的紧张以及澳大利亚商品产量增长的好处。

据路透社数据显示，澳大利亚11月成为世界上最大的液化天然气出口国，出口量超过卡塔尔，达650万吨。相比之下，卡塔尔的产量为620万吨。

曹海斌 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Australia Expects Higher LNG Exports Next Year

Australia will likely export more liquefied natural gas in the next financial year—to end-June 2019—after the start of production of three more large-scale facilities offshore during the second half of 2018, the Resources and Energy Quarterly report by the Australian Department of Industry said.

Following the launch of production at Chevron’s and Woodside’s Wheatstone LNG project and Inpex’ Ichthys, the Department of Industry expects the country’s total LNG exports next fiscal year to reach 74.9 million tons. In the next financial year, to end-June 2020, the department sees a further increase, to 78.3 million tons.

The FY 2018/2019 forecast, however, assumes Shell’s Prelude project will begin production before this year’s end, as scheduled. However, Shell has not yet announced the launch of commercial production at Prelude.

Wheatstone added 8.9 million tons of LNG to Australia’s total liquefaction capacity when it began producing, with Ichthys adding another 8.9 million tons. When it begins production, Prelude will boost this by another 3.6 million tons of LNG annually.

However, although export volumes will grow, this may not be the case for earnings from them, according to the Department of Industry.

“Bulk commodity prices are expected to decline modestly over the outlook period,” the the Resources and Energy Quarterly report said, “as global supply of these commodities improves. These price declines will more than offset the impact of growth in export volumes during that period, leading to a modest decline in export earnings in 2019–20. Export earnings should still be well above 2017–18 levels however, reflecting the tightness of resource and energy commodity markets and the benefits of rising Australian commodity production.”

Australia in November became the world’s top LNG exporter, surpassing Qatar with an export rate of 6.5 million tons, according to Reuters data. This compares to 6.2 million tons for Qatar.