EIA称IMO新规推动了美国乃至全球炼厂运营

中国石化新闻网讯 据OGJ网1月16日消息 自2020年1月1日起，国际海事组织（IMO）将制定《防止船舶污染国际公约》（《防污公约》）附件六，将远洋船舶使用的海洋燃料油的最高硫含量从3.5%降低到0.5%。

美国能源信息管理局（EIA）在其最新的短期能源展望中预计，从今年第四季度开始，这项法规将鼓励全球炼油厂增加炼油厂运营，并最大限度地将高硫重质燃料油升级为低硫蒸馏燃料，以生产符合标准的燃料。

EIA预计，从2019年起，美国炼油厂总产量将增长4%，到2020年，平均日产量将达到创纪录的1790万桶，炼油厂利用率将达到96%。EIA预测，法规最重要的影响之一将是柴油批发利润率，从2018年的平均43美分/加仑增加到2019年的48美分/加仑，然后到2020年的65美分/加仑。

据美国能源安全联盟发言人Ken Spain称，IMO 2020标准还可能为美国能源行业及其工人向全球市场供应低硫燃料提供巨大的经济机会。

Spain说：“这些标准使美国比国外石油生产商有很大优势，因为他们国家没有进行必要的基础设施投资。”

他说：“美国炼油行业准备满足对低硫燃料的需求，美国能源生产商的投资将确保及时执行IMO标准，将为美国提供更大的能源安全和更大的地缘政治优势。”

王磊 摘译自 OGJ

原文如下：

EIA: IMO regulations drive up US, global refinery runs

Beginning on Jan. 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to enact the Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL Convention), which lowers the maximum sulfur content of marine fuel oil used in ocean-going vessels from 3.5% to 0.5%.

In its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration expects that, starting in this year’s fourth quarter, this regulation will encourage global refiners to increase refinery runs and maximize upgrading of high-sulfur heavy fuel oil into low-sulfur distillate fuel to create compliant bunker fuels.

EIA expects total US refinery runs to increase by 4% from 2019 to reach a record level of 17.9 million b/d on average in 2020, resulting in refinery utilization rates that average 96%. EIA forecasts that one of the most significant impacts from the regulations will be on diesel wholesale margins, which increase from an average of 43¢/gal in 2018 to 48¢/gal in 2019 and then to 65¢/gal in 2020.

The IMO 2020 standards may also provide an enormous economic opportunity for the US energy industry and its workers to supply low-sulfur fuels to the global market, according to Ken Spain, spokesperson for the Coalition for American Energy Security.

“These standards give the US a significant advantage over foreign oil producers whose nations haven’t made necessary infrastructure investments,” Spain said.

“The US refining sector is prepared to meet demand for low-sulfur fuel. The investments made by US energy producers will ensure that timely implementation of the IMO standards will provide greater energy security and increased geopolitical advantage for the US,” he said.