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| 2019-01-22 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社卡尔加里消息，加拿大艾伯塔省的原油减产计划已经导致加拿大重油价格大幅上涨，但对于能源公司的股票来说，这并没有那么大的帮助。 自上月早些时候宣布减产以来，加拿大西部精选原油价格已上涨近一倍，至约每桶4美元，在1月11日，其对于美国基准原油的折扣率降至每桶6.95美元，为近10年低点。但与此同时，加拿大多伦多S&P/TSX能源指数的涨幅还不到4%。 推动这种停滞不前表现的原因是大型生产商被迫削减产量，以及受该计划影响较小的小型钻探商采取的一系列保守举措。总体而言，该行业正在削减支出，等待更好的日子，分析师们称赞这一策略是谨慎的，但投资者发现这一策略不够令人信服。 在多伦多布朗普顿公司帮助管理10亿美元（合14亿加元）的资产Laura Lau表示：当然, 削减计划帮助了现金流, 但它发出了一个明确的信号，即“你不能增长，甚至不要尝试。” 受削减影响最大的大型生产商，如加拿大Suncor 能源公司、加拿大自然资源公司以及加拿大Cenovus能源公司，都在计划明年的支出持平或减少。 那些没有被迫减产的小型钻井机也在跟进。Whitecap资源公司上个月表示，该公司正将支出水平保持在去年的水平上，并将其大幅加权到下半年。Crescent Point能源公司本周表示，将削减5亿加元至约13亿加元的支出，并削减了分红。 这种资金削减甚至已经从石油工业扩展到天然气生产商，其大部分产出用于为油砂开采。Peyto勘探与发展公司本周将今年的资本预算设定为1.5亿加元至2亿加元之间, 比去年11月的预测下降了1亿加元, 并削减了分红。 尽管这些举措中有许多受到了分析师的欢迎，但投资者却不那么热情。在这些企业宣布计划后的首个交易日，Peyto股价下跌11%，Crescent Point下跌1.3%，Whitecap下跌6.8%。 Laura Lau表示，企业向投资者发出的信息是，他们对该行业面临的长期问题（如无法修建新管道）能否得到解决没有信心。她还表示，尽管减产计划正在实现其提高加拿大原油价格的目标，但实际上，即便需要削减原油，也给投资者带来了负面信号。她补充称：“如果阿艾伯塔省（我认为它是各省中最具创业精神的一个）正在寻求政府干预，那就说明情况真的很糟糕。” 詹晓晶摘自彭博社 原文如下： Canadian oil surge fails to lift producers out of the doldrums Alberta’s crude curtailment plan has caused a dramatic rise in the price of heavy Canadian oil. But for shares of energy companies, it hasn’t been as much of a help. Since the production curtailment was unveiled early last month, Western Canadian Select crude has almost doubled to about $4/bbl, narrowing its discount to benchmark U.S. oil to an almost decade-low of $6.95/bbl on Jan. 11. Yet in that same time, the S&P/TSX Energy Index is up less than 4%. Driving the stagnant performance are the forced cuts in output among the larger producers as well as a series of conservative moves by smaller drillers who are less affected by the program. Overall, the industry is dialing back spending and waiting for better days -- a strategy that analysts have lauded as prudent but that investors have found less than compelling. “Certainly the curtailment program has helped the cash flows, but it’s sending a clear signal: ‘You can’t grow. Don’t even try,’” said Laura Lau, who helps manage $1 billion (C$1.4 billion) in assets at Brompton Corp. in Toronto. The larger producers that are most affected by the curtailment, such as Suncor Energy Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Cenovus Energy Inc., are all planning on flat or reduced spending next year. Smaller drillers who aren’t forced to cut as much output are following suit. Whitecap Resources Inc. said last month that it’s keeping spending in line with last year’s levels and heavily weighting it to the second half. Crescent Point Energy Corp. said this week that it’s slashing its spending by C$500 million to about C$1.3 billion and trimming its dividend. The frugality has even spread beyond the oil industry to gas producers, much of whose output goes to fuel oil-sands operations. Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. this week set a capital budget of C$150 million to C$200 million for the year, down C$100 million from the forecast it gave in November, and cut its dividend. While many of those moves were cheered by analysts, investors were less enthused. In the first trading session after announcing their plans, Peyto slid 11%, Crescent Point fell 1.3% and Whitecap dropped 6.8%. The message that companies are sending to investors is that they don’t have confidence that the long-term problems the industry is facing -- such as the inability to get new pipelines built -- will be fixed, Lau said. And even though the curtailment program is achieving its goal of boosting Canadian crude prices, the fact that it was even needed sends a negative signal to investors, she said. “If Alberta, which I’d argue is the most entrepreneurial of the provinces, is seeking government intervention, it just shows things are really bad,” Lau said.
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