EIA：二叠纪盆地产量将推动创纪录石油产量

中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯2019年1月24日华盛顿报道，美国能源信息署（EIA）周四在其年度能源展望报告中表示，受二叠纪盆地的推动，美国创纪录的石油产量预计将持续数十年。

EIA在报告的参考案例中预测，到2027年，美国石油日产量将从2018年的平均1093万桶攀升至近1500万桶，到2050年前趋于平稳，降至1200万桶以下。

但EIA在其高油气资源和技术案例中预测到2040年美国石油日产量将攀升至2000万桶以上。

然而，美国能源信息署预测，在低油价的情况下，美国石油日产量将在5年内达到略低于1300万桶的峰值，到2050年将逐渐降至大约830万桶。

EIA在报告中表示：“资源的规模和降低生产成本的技术进步速度直接转化为长期总产量。高得多的油价可以提振短期产量，但无法维持更高的生产速度。”

报告称，未来30年，美国大陆48个州的页岩产量将占到美国国内产量的近70%。

李峻 编译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Permian Basin output to drive record-setting oil output for decades: US EIA

Record-breaking US oil production is expected to continue for decades, driven largely by the Permian Basin, the US Energy Information Administration said in its Annual Energy Outlook Thursday.

In the outlook's reference case, EIA forecasts US oil output, which averaged 10.93 million b/d in 2018, will climb to nearly 15 million b/d by 2027 before flattening out and falling below 12 million b/d by 2050.

But in its high oil and natural gas resource and technology case, the upper end of the EIA's forecast, the agency sees oil production climbing above 20 million b/d by 2040.

In its low oil price case, however, EIA forecasts US oil output will peak just below 13 million b/d within five years and gradually fall to about 8.3 million b/d by 2050.

"The size of resources and the pace of technology improvements to lower production costs translate directly to long-term total production," EIA said. "Much higher oil prices can boost near-term production, but cannot sustain the higher production pace."

Shale production in the Lower 48 states will account for nearly 70% of domestic production over the next three decades, according to the report.