俄罗斯天然气大量涌入欧洲LNG市场

中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社伦敦报道，这个冬季，由于俄罗斯生产商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（俄气/gazprom）的天然气大量涌入欧洲市场，导致天然气价格发生动态变化，并使俄气今年以来增加了流向欧洲大陆天然气的管道流量。

由于美国去年10月份至今年1月份对欧洲大陆的液化天然气销量较上年同期增长近5倍，促使俄气坚定不移地采取行动来增加该公司在欧洲的现货天然气销售。

但是，根据俄气的数据显示，俄气的天然气长期合同销售额也在上升，今年1月份，其向欧洲输送的天然气总量为176亿立方米，较上年同期增长近5亿立方米。

上升的原因之一是欧洲天然气批发合同的时间利差发生了变化，这使得一些交易员在与俄气的长期交易中或通过该公司的现货拍卖增加购买量。

这一趋势表明，自去年10月份以来涌入欧洲的液化天然气正在重塑天然气价格和在欧洲大陆的交易量，而交易员仍在适应新的市场环境。

液化天然气供应的激增在很大程度上导致了欧洲天然气市场供过于求，从而使天然气库存水平居高不下，并压低了价格利差。

大多数欧洲国家的天然气日前交易（日前交易是相对实时交易，指提前一天进行的次日24小时的交易）价格几乎与夏季合同价格持平, 这使得在即时市场上购买天然气比从储存点提取天然气更有利可图。

一位总部位于伦敦的交易员说: "当你看天然气库存时, 由于日前交易的定价 (与夏季相比) 是平缓的, 所以不取存货是有道理的, 因为你无法用日前交易与夏季合同之间的价差来支付取货费用。”

本周, 荷兰天然气交易中心的日前交易价格小幅低于2019年夏季的合同价格。而一年前, 该中心成交的日前价格比夏季合同高出近10%。

一位欧洲大陆的交易员说：“根据目前日前交易与夏季合同的情况，减少提货量并保持与俄气的长期合同运行是有意义的。”

天然气交易商对这两份合同都持悲观看法，这意味着，随着欧洲进入夏季时的存储水平将达到多年来的最高水平，俄气的交易量在3月底之前可能会保持在高位。

交易员表示，俄气麾下子公司俄气营销和贸易公司（Gazprom Marketing and trading）在欧洲天然气销售中心也更为活跃了。

在现货市场上，俄气一直在出售去年9月份推出的天然气拍卖。

今年2月，拍卖中的大部分天然气迄今均以即期交割的价格售出，而在1月份，交易员们预计将出现寒冷天气，从而购买了更多的2月份合同。

交易员表示，拍卖的价格通常与欧洲各中心的价格非常接近，这表明俄气为赢得欧洲大陆买家而采取的价格策略正变得更加灵活。

Refinitiv分析师预计，除英国外，欧洲西北部的天然气储存在冬季结束前，将为190太瓦时左右，而2018年3月底为50太瓦时。

这将是2016年以来的最高库存水平，并进一步给夏季天然气合约带来压力。荷兰本周的夏季天然气价格比一年前同期低了8%，并显示了下一个冬季合同为七年来的最大折扣。

一位交易员表示，市场普遍预测，今年欧洲的夏季合约将非常疲软。

​

詹晓晶摘自路透社

原文如下：

European LNG influx plays into Gazprom’s hands this winter

Changing gas price dynamics caused by an influx of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe have played into Russian producer Gazprom’s hands and enabled it to increase pipeline flows to the continent so far this year.

Gazprom is moving determinedly with spot gas sales in Europe due to a near-fivefold spike in U.S. LNG sales to the continent in October to January compared with a year earlier.

But sales within Gazprom long-term contracts are also rising. In January, Gazprom gas flows to Europe totaled 17.6 billion cubic meters (bcm), an almost 0.5 bcm rise from the same month a year earlier, Gazprom data shows.

One reason for the rise is a change in time spreads on European wholesale gas contracts, which is enabling some traders to increase purchases in long-term deals with Gazprom or through spot auctions by the company.

This trend shows how LNG, which has flooded Europe since October, is reshaping gas prices and flows in the continent, with traders still adjusting to the new market environment.

A jump in LNG supplies contributed significantly to oversupply in the European gas market, leading to high storage levels and pushing down price spreads.

Day-ahead gas prices in most European countries are almost on par with summer contract prices, which makes it more profitable to buy gas on the prompt market rather than withdraw it from storage sites.

“When you look at storages, due to the day-ahead pricing (being) flattish (compared) to the summer, it makes sense not to withdraw as you can’t cover the withdrawal fees with the spread between the day-ahead and summer,” a London-based trader said.

This week, the day-ahead price on the Dutch hub has traded slightly below the summer 2019 contract price. A year ago it was trading almost 10 percent above the summer contract.

“At the current day-ahead to summer spread it makes sense to reduce withdrawal and keep (the long-term contract with Gazprom) running,” a trader in continental Europe said.

Gas traders have a bearish outlook for both contracts, meaning Gazprom’s flows could remain high until the end of March, with Europe entering the summer season with multi-year-high storage levels.

Gazprom’s trading arm, Gazprom Marketing and Trading, has also been more active on European hubs selling gas, traders said.

In the spot market, Gazprom has been selling gas in auctions it launched in September.

In February, the majority of gas in auction has been sold for prompt delivery so far, while in January traders bought more February contracts, expecting cold weather.

Traders said the price in auctions is usually very close to that on European hubs, showing Gazprom is becoming more flexible with its price strategy to win buyers on the continent.

Refinitiv analysts expect storage in northwest Europe, excluding Britain, to close the winter season at around 190 terrawatt hours (TWh), against 50 TWh at the end of March 2018.

This would be the highest stock level since 2016 and pressure summer gas contracts further. The Dutch summer price is 8 percent cheaper this week than a year ago and is showing the biggest discount to the next winter contract in seven years.

Summer contracts in Europe are widely forecast to be very weak this year, a trader said.