全球上游支出2020年前将恢复到5000亿美元以上

中国石化新闻网讯 据AzerNews网站2019年3月9日报道，阿塞拜疆Trend通讯社日前援引伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）研究和咨询公司的统计数据报道说，全球上游行业的支出2020年前将恢复到5000亿美元以上。

伍德麦肯兹说：“2016年和2017年，全球上游行业的支出从4500亿美元的低点有所上升，但还远远不够，因为2014年全球上游行业的支出峰值达到了7500亿美元。我们认为，受美国大陆项目、一系列深水项目和液化天然气（LNG）投资新阶段的推动，到2020年前，全球上游行业支出将恢复到5000亿美元以上。这是一个缓慢的复苏，在地理位置上非常不完整，距离被称为新的繁荣还有很长的路要走。”

伍德麦肯兹指出：“石油和天然气公司又开始赚钱了。在运营和财务上，所有的灯光都是绿色的——产量上升了，成本下降了，利润上升了。与5年前每桶100美元的自由现金流相比，石油巨头现在每桶60美元获得的自由现金流更多。”

伍德麦肯兹认为，服务业的情况并非如此。自2014年泡沫破灭以来，服务业一直处于痛苦时期。许多服务公司的回报率仍远低于危机前的水平。

“全球上游投资只是在缓慢走出低迷。服务业在上升周期中蓬勃发展。上游企业刚刚从上次繁荣时期过度支出带来的可怕后遗症中恢复过来。该行业决心不再衰退，虔诚地坚守资本纪律，回避增长。纪律越严，股市回报股东的超额资本似乎就越多。这是一种共生关系，可能会持续一段时间。”

据伍德麦肯兹说所，自2014年以来，油气行业的全球产能平均减少了25%左右。

“然而，根据自升式钻机制造商(70%)和浮式生产系统制造商(50%)等关键指标，产能利用率仍然很低。我们预测的支出增长不会收紧大多数市场，也不会恢复定价权。需要拿出更多的产能，”伍德麦肯兹如是说。

李峻 编译自 AzerNews

原文如下：

Global upstream spend will recover to over $500 billion

Global upstream spend will recover to over $500 billion by 2020, Trend reports citing Wood Mackenzie research and consulting company.

"Global upstream spend is up from lows of $450 billion in 2016 and 2017, having collapsed from the 2014 peak of $750 billion. But not by much. We think spend will recover to over $500 billion by 2020, driven by the US L48, a flurry of deepwater projects and a new phase of LNG investment. It’s a sluggish recovery, geographically very patchy, and a long way from being called a new boom," said the company.

"Oil and gas companies are back in the money. Operationally and financially, all lights are green – production is up, costs are down and margins are up. The Majors are generating more free cash flow at $60 per barrel than they were five years ago at $100."

Wood Mackenzie believes that the same can’t be said for the service sector, which has continued to have a miserable time of it since the 2014 bust. "Returns for many service companies are still scraping along well below pre-crash levels."

"Global upstream investment is only slowly pulling out of the downturn. The service sector thrives in an upcycle. Upstream companies have only just recovered from the ghastly hangover brought on by overspend in the last boom. The industry is determined not to lapse again, is religiously sticking to capital discipline and is shunning growth. The more discipline, the more the stock market seems to reward for returning surplus capital to shareholders. It’s symbiotic and could last for some time."

There has been rationalization – global capacity across the sector reduced by around 25 percent on average since 2014, according to Wood Mackenzie.

"Yet capacity utilization is still modest, based on key indicators like jackup rigs (70 percent) and floating production system fabricators (50 percent). The spend increase we forecast won’t tighten most markets and bring back pricing power. More capacity needs to come out."