EIA：石油价格因欧佩克和美国产量下降而上涨

中国石化新闻网讯 据石油和天然气杂志3月12日消息，2月布兰特原油现货均价为64美元/桶，较1月上涨5美元/桶，较去年同期下跌约1美元/桶。

美国能源情报署(US Energy Information Administration)最新发布的《短期能源展望》(short - short Energy Outlook)显示，石油输出国组织(opec，简称:欧佩克)和美国2月份预计原油产量下降，导致全球液体燃料库存每日减少140万桶。

尽管今年2月市场表现强劲，但EIA预测，2019年全球液体燃料库存将增加20万桶/天，2020年将增加40万桶/天。3月份STEO预计的两年内库存增幅均低于上月STEO的预期，反映出欧佩克和美国的原油产量预期有所下降。

沙特阿拉伯2月份的原油减产幅度超过预期，平均每日减产1000万桶。EIA预测，欧佩克和非欧佩克国家的联合减产措施将持续到年底。

根据EIA估计，2月份美国原油平均日产量为1190万桶，略低于1月份的平均水平。EIA预测，2019年美国原油产量平均为1230万桶/日，2020年为1300万桶/日，其中大部分增长来自二叠纪盆地。

“欧佩克和美国的产量水平，以及全球石油需求增长的速度，给石油市场平衡和价格预期带来了相当大的不确定性。然而，根据目前的预测，EIA预计，2019年和2020年，全球库存的增加和欧佩克闲置产能的增加将限制油价大幅上涨的压力。”

尹路 编译自 石油和天然气杂志

原文如下：

Oil prices up on lower OPEC, US production

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $64/bbl in February, up $5/bbl from January and about $1/bbl lower than the same time last year.

Declining estimated crude oil production for February from both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the US contributed to a drawdown of 1.4 million b/d in global liquid fuels inventories, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration.

Notwithstanding the strong draw in February, EIA forecasts that global liquid fuels inventories will rise by 200,000 b/d in 2019 and by 400,000 b/d in 2020. The March STEO’s expected inventory builds in both years are lower than those forecast in last month’s STEO, reflecting lower expected crude oil production from OPEC and the US.

Saudi Arabia cut crude oil production by more than expected in February, with production averaging 10 million b/d of oil. EIA assumes that joint OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil production cuts will remain in place through yearend.

US crude oil production averaged 11.9 million b/d in February, down slightly from the January average, according to EIA estimates. EIA forecasts that US crude oil production will average 12.3 million b/d in 2019 and 13 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian basin.

“OPEC and US production levels, as well as the pace of global oil demand growth, present considerable uncertainty to oil market balances and price expectations.

Based on the current forecast, however, EIA expects global inventory builds and rising OPEC spare capacity will limit significant upward oil price pressures in 2019 and in 2020,” EIA said.