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| 2019-04-01 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站3月28日休斯顿报道 在美国能源信息管理局（EIA）报告原油供应增加后，3月27日轻质低硫原油价格温和下跌，收于每桶60美元以下。这一增长出乎大多数分析师的意料，因为他们曾预期库存连续第三周出现下滑。 EIA称，截至3月22日的一周，除战略石油储备外，原油供应增加了280万桶。美国原油库存为4.423亿桶，比每年这个时候的5年平均水平低约2%（OGJ，2019年3月27日）。 在该报告发布之前，普氏能源对分析师的调查显示，分析师预计将下降220万桶。 除了EIA库存报告外，美国石油学会3月26日估计，截至3月22日的一周，美国石油供应增加了190万桶。在这两份报告中，EIA的库存报告受到了更密切的关注。 巴克莱银行分析师Ajay Rajadhyaksha在一份研究报告中表示，截至2019年，石油基准价格较2018年12月的低点上涨了25-30%。 巴克莱预计，第二季度布伦特原油平均价格为73美元/桶，而轻质低硫原油平均价格为65美元/桶。该公司还预计，欧佩克和俄罗斯将在6月的一次会议上决定维持现有的减产。 Rajadhyaksha说：“我们的观点主要是由供应因素驱动的。我们预计，整体产量将继续受到限制，导致第一季度出现严重的供需赤字。” Rajadhyaksha说，美国石油供应继续超过预期。巴克莱分析师预计，即使价格大幅上涨，资本约束也会限制新生产。巴克莱看涨观点面临的风险主要包括美国致密油生产表现优异、汽油需求增长大幅下降以及全球宏观经济情绪恶化。 王磊 摘译自 Oil & Gas Journal 原文如下： NYMEX crude settles under $60/bbl on higher US oil supplies Light, sweet crude oil prices fell modestly Mar. 27 to settle under $60/bbl after the US Energy Information Administration reported a build in crude oil supplies. The increase caught most analysts by surprise because they had expected a third consecutive weekly decline. The EIA reported crude supplies, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose by 2.8 million bbl for the week ended Mar. 22. At 442.3 million bbl, US crude oil inventories are about 2% below the 5-year average for this time of year (OGJ Online, Mar. 27, 2019). Before the report was released, a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts showed analysts anticipated a drop of 2.2 million bbl. Separate from the EIA inventory, the American Petroleum Institute on Mar. 26 estimated US oil supplies increased 1.9 million bbl for the week ended Mar. 22. The EIA inventory report is the more closely watched of the two reports. Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays said in a research note that oil benchmark prices are up 25-30% so far in 2019 from the lows of December 2018. Barclays expects Brent will average $73/bbl in the second quarter while light, sweet crude will average $65/bbl. The firm also expects the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia will decide during a June meeting to keep existing production cuts in place. “Our view is driven mainly by supply considerations,” Rajadhyaksha said. “We expect overall output to remain constrained, leading to a sharp supply-demand deficit in the first quarter.” US oil supply continues to outperform expectations, Rajadhyaksha said. Barclays analysts expect “capital discipline to constrain new production even if prices rise significantly. The risks to [Barclays] bullish view include outperformance of US tight oil production, a sharp decline in gasoline demand growth, and a souring in global macroeconomic sentiment.”
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