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| 2019-04-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据世界能源网2019年4月5日奥斯陆报道，挪威著名的能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（雷斯塔能源/Rystad energy）预计，由于油价逼近每桶70美元，油价将在2020年上半年短暂反弹。 总部位于挪威奥斯陆的雷斯塔能源表示，油价然后将失去上涨动力，取而代之的将是俄罗斯和石油生产国卡特尔欧佩克需要进一步减产。 雷斯塔能源石油市场研究主管Bjornar Tonhaugen说：“我们对今年下半年和明年上半年仍持乐观的立场，我们预计欧佩克+减产协议将延长到2019年底，而我们还预计2020年国际海事组织有关在船用燃料含硫量上引入严格规定将看涨石油市场。 他补充说：“然而，国际海事组织2020年“争夺’”的影响可能是短暂的。到2021年，沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克将面临新的压力，要求他们再次减产，否则他们将面临油价新一轮下跌的风险。“ 雷斯塔能源表示，美国页岩气产量正给欧佩克成员国造成“反复出现的困境”。 Tonhaugen说：“我们初步预计，由于国际海事组织的影响消退，价格将可能从2020年下半年到2021年将出现调整。然而，最大的问题是，在当前的基本情况下，美国页岩产业在2020年至2025年之间的年增长能力为140万桶/天，这足以满足全球需求，这将给沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克带来一个反复出现的两难境地。” 雷斯塔能源预测，国际海事组织(IMO)即将出台的2020年船用燃料硫含量限制规定将对全球石油市场产生短暂的影响。 Tonhaugen表示：“我们预计，2020年全球轻油/柴油需求日增长将达到170万桶，其中140万桶为船用燃料，几乎是全球5年平均轻油需求增长的6倍。” 他补充道：“这可能会对整个柴油驱动车队产生影响。到2020年，全球柴油价格(也包括加油站)可能高于许多人的预期。” 李峻 编译自 世界能源 原文如下： Rystad Expects Oil Price Rally in H1 of 2020 The energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy expects that a short-lived price rally through the first half of 2020 as oil prices approach $70 a barrel. It will then lose momentum and be replaced by a need for additional production cuts by Russia and the cartel of oil producing countries, OPEC, the Norway-headquartered firm said. “We retain our bullish stance for the second half of 2019 and first half of 2020 as we anticipate OPEC+ to extend production cuts through 2019, while we also expect bullish oil market effects due to the introduction of IMO 2020 regulations on sulfur content in marine fuels,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Market Research at Rystad Energy. He added: “However, the effects of the IMO 2020 ‘scramble’ will likely be short-lived. By 2021 there will be renewed pressure on Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ to cut production again, or risk a new down-cycle in oil prices.” Rystad Energy says US shale production is causing a “recurring dilemma” for the OPEC countries. “We tentatively expect a correction in prices, possibly already from the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as the IMO effect fades. Nevertheless, the biggest issue is the ability of the US shale industry to grow by 1.4 million bpd annually between 2020 and 2025 in our current base case, which is enough to keep up with global demand, causing a recurring dilemma for Saudi Arabia and OPEC,” Tonhaugen remarked. Rystad Energy forecasts that the upcoming IMO 2020 sulfur limit regulations for marine bunker fuels will have short-lived consequences for the world’s oil markets. “We estimate that global gasoil/diesel demand growth in 2020 could reach 1.7 million bpd, 1.4 million bpd of which is from marine bunkers, almost six times the five-year average global gasoil growth,” Tonhaugen said. He added: “This could have reverberations for the whole fleet of diesel-driven vehicles. Global diesel prices – also at the pump – could be higher in 2020 than many expect.”
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