巴黎协定可能使石油需求稳步下降

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价网站4月11日消息 资产管理Legal and General投资管理公司提醒称，如果政府和行业认真对待气候变化和减排问题，那么从2025年起，原油需求可能开始稳步下降。

路透社援引该公司的话称，如果签署了《巴黎气候变化协定》的每个成员国都决定通过实施新政策和减少化石燃料的使用来真正履行他们的承诺，那么到2040年初，石油需求可能比现在下降40%，这意味着需求将降至6000万桶/日左右。

该资产管理公司在一项研究中表示，然而如果有关气候变化的政策没有变化，原油需求可能在2030年左右达到1.1亿桶/日的峰值。这项研究旨在确定那些既能从更严格的环境政策中获益，又不会在没有执行此类政策的情况下遭受任何负面影响的公司。

这两种情况都不如中间的情况现实，在中间的情况下，各国政府继续执行旨在阻止全球平均气温上升的新政策，但并不是以最佳的速度和最佳的范围来执行。

Legal and General 投资管理大宗商品研究主管Nick Stansbury 说：“很难说，如果石油需求开始稳步下降，我们认为这是合理的。石油和天然气行业作为一个整体，在本质上仍然像今天一样有利可图。”

Stansbury补充说，如果石油公司在这些政策带来的变化之前重新定位自己，他们甚至会从环境保护政策中获益。所以我们可以看到大型石油公司正在向非核心业务领域扩张，并计划在未来将其转变为核心业务。最新的重大变化是壳牌计划成为世界上最大的电力公司。

王磊 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Paris Agreement Could Trigger Free Fall In Oil Demand

Crude oil demand could begin declining steadily from 2025 onwards if governments and industries get serious about tackling climate change and reducing emissions, asset manager Legal and General Investment Management has warned.

Reuters quoted the company as saying if everyone who signed the Paris Agreement on Climate Change decides to really fulfill their commitments by implementing new policies and shrinking the use of fossil fuels, oil demand could shed as much as 40 percent by the early 2040s from today’s levels. This means it would stand at around 60 million barrels daily.

If, however, there is no change in policies concerning climate change, crude oil demand would likely peak at some 110 million bpd around 2030, the asset manager said in a study of the issue. The study aimed at identifying companies that would both benefit from stricter environmental policies and not suffer any negative consequences if no such policies are enforced.

Both of these scenarios are less realistic than a middle one, in which governments continue to enforce new policies aimed at arresting the rise in average global temperatures but not at the optimal pace and with the optimal scope.

“It’s hard to argue that if oil demand starts to go into free fall, which is what we see as plausible, that ... the oil and gas industry as a whole remains as intrinsically as profitable as it does today,” the head of commodity research at Legal and General Investment Management, Nick Stansbury, told Reuters.

Stansbury added oil companies even stand to benefit from pro-environment policies if they re-orient themselves ahead of the changes such policies bring about. No wonder we are seeing Big Oil expand into non-core business areas that it plans to turn into core business in the future. The latest big announcement here was Shell’s plan to become the world’s largest power utility.