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| 2019-05-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据离岸工程5月8日消息称该，总部位于挪威的能源研究和咨询公司Rystad Energy说，截至目前，被批准的未开发项目总数仅占被批准的离岸项目总量的40%。 Rystad Energy油田服务研究主管奥敦•马丁森表示：“同样，棕地市场才刚刚开始，历史总支出只占整个项目生命周期中预计棕地支出的20%左右，将80%的棕地支出留给未来。而且，停运市场仍处于初期形态。” 据估计，全球大约有8000亿桶未被发现的石油和天然气当量，这意味着在未来50年，勘探活动仍将继续。 马丁森表示：“然而，我们预计，随着更多潜在资源被发现，长期而言，海上勘探的兴趣将继续减弱。考虑到其他有竞争力的供应来源，勘探可能会被迫进入更深，更偏远的水域，开发这些水域的成本可能太高。” 未开发项目是新油气田的新发展。从历史上看，被批准的绿地项目在全球的实际投资总额约为3.7万亿美元。总的来说，就全球总储量而言，对未开发项目的批准可能只实现了40%的潜力。 马丁森补充说：“这意味着有巨大的增长空间。” 棕地项目是对现有油气田的扩建或升级。在目前开采的3000个油气田中，由于采用了先进技术，耗竭率有所提高，到2030年仍有50%的油气田可以继续开采。此外，已在开发或预计将被批准的即将开工的项目还将增加2500个油气田。 马丁森说:“假设石油和天然气到2100年仍将用于石化和电力生产，我们预计在棕地服务上的支出将是目前的5至6倍。” 维修和运营服务部门自然是未来工作量最大的市场，58%的市场将在未来支出，相当于205000亿美元。 马丁森评论道：“油井服务和商品、钻井承包商、EPCI和海底钻井都是同样大的市场，我们预计它们将在未来50年对服务业做出重大贡献。” 在评论整体调查结果时，马丁森表示:“尽管油价下跌、页岩油气和欧佩克的市场份额之争，但离岸石油市场仍在蓬勃发展，未来前景广阔。” 曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程 原文如下： 800bln Undiscovered Barrels of Oil and Gas Exist Globally Total greenfield project sanctioning, summed up to the present day, only accounts for 40% of estimated volumes of offshore projects ever being sanctioned, said Rystad Energy, the energy research and consultancy headquartered in Norway. "Likewise, the brownfield market has only begun, with total historical expenditures accounting for only about 20% of estimated brownfield spend over the projects lifetime, leaving 80% of brownfield spending to the future. And the decommissioning market is still in its nascent form,” says Audun Martinsen, head of oilfield services research at Rystad Energy. It estimates that around 800 billion undiscovered barrels of oil and gas equivalents exist globally, hinting that exploration will still be in business in the next 50 years. “However, we expect offshore’s appetite for exploration to continue to weaken long term as more potential resources are discovered. Exploration will likely be forced into deeper and more remote waters, which could be too expensive to develop given the availability of other competitive sources of supply,” Martinsen said. Greenfield projects are new developments of new oil and gas fields. Historically, sanctioned greenfield projects have racked up total investments of about $3700 billion in real dollars worldwide. In total, greenfield sanctioning has likely only achieved 40% of its potential with reference to total global reserves. “This means that there is tremendous room for growth,” Martinsen added. Brownfield projects are expansions or upgrades of existing oil and gas fields. Of the 3,000 oil and gas fields producing today, 50% could still be producing in 2030 due to improved depletion rates through the use of advanced technology. In addition, upcoming projects already under development or expected to be sanctioned represent an additional 2500 oil and gas fields. “Assuming that oil and gas will still be consumed for petrochemical use and power production through 2100, we expect to spend five to six times as much on brownfield services as what has been spent as of today,” Martinsen remarked. The maintenance and operations service segment is naturally the market with the most volume of work ahead, with 58% of the market to be spent in the future representing $20,500 billion in expenditures. “Well Services and Commodities, Drilling Contractors, EPCI, and Subsea are equally large markets which we expect will make significant contributions to the service sector in the next 50 years,” Martinsen commented. Commenting on the overall findings, Martinsen said: “Despite oil price downturns, the shale revolution and OPEC market share wars, offshore continues to thrive and has much to offer the future.”
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