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| 2019-05-10 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据世界天然气网站5月8日消息 离2020年国际海事组织（IMO）新条例的实施仅剩八个月，其影响范围将超出炼油和航运行业。 咨询集团伍德麦肯兹的分析师指出，由于国际海事组织的监管，预计会出现更强劲的汽油（S<0.5 wt%）和更低迷的高硫燃料油（HSFO）需求裂缝（与原油的价格差异），这意味着轻重质原油以及硫含量的差异将更大，反过来这也会对原油价格差异产生连锁反应。 伍德麦肯兹的Sushant Gupta表示：“因此，像迪拜和玛雅这样生产更多高硫燃料原油的重质和高硫原油或含硫原油将贬值，而像邦尼轻质原油这样的低硫原油将在2020年初升值。” 他说：“对液化天然气定价用的较多的是日本JCC原油基准。JCC占中东中含硫原油的90%，因此遵循了迪拜原油的趋势。” 东北亚液化天然气合同的潜在成本有望降低。 IMO主要通过两种方式影响液化天然气：运输和承包。 伍德麦肯兹的Nicholas Browne解释说：“第一个影响是液化天然气的装载，我们预计到2025年全球液化天然气装载需求将达到900万吨/年，这也导致将建造更多的液化天然气燃料船。” Browne 说：“第二个影响是合同中液化天然气的价值。日本原油综合指数JCC价格大约用于40%的液化天然气合同，它的价值将相对布伦特下降。对于东北亚买家来说，这意味着仅在2020年就可以节省约25亿美元。” 吴恒磊 编译自 世界天然气 原文如下： WoodMac: IMO rules to cut LNG contract prices Implementation of IMO 2020 regulation is just eight months away and its implications will be felt beyond refining and shipping. Analysts from the the consultancy group Wood Mackenzie noted that, because of the IMO regulation, a stronger gasoil (S<0.5 wt %) and a weaker high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) crack (the price difference to crude) is expected, meaning wider light-heavy and sweet-sour differentials, which in turn translate to knock on effect on crude price differentials. “So heavier and high sulphur or sour crudes such as Dubai and Maya which produce more HSFO will depreciate in value and lighter and low sulphur crude such as Bonny Light will appreciate in value in the early 2020s,” according to WoodMac’s Sushant Gupta. “Of particular interest to LNG pricing is the Japanese JCC crude benchmark. JCC represents 90% of Middle Eastern medium sour crudes and hence follows the trend for Dubai crude,” he said. Potential cost savings for North East Asian LNG contracts IMO impacts LNG in two main ways: shipping and contracting. WoodMac’s Nicholas Browne, explained, “the first impact is on LNG bunkering, and we expect global LNG bunkering demand to reach 9 mtpa by 2025. It is also leading to more LNG fuelled ships being built.” “The second impact is the value of LNG within contracts. The Japanese crude cocktail is used for around 40% of LNG contracts. Its value will fall relative to Brent. For North East Asian buyers this could mean a saving of approximately US$2.5 billion in 2020 alone,” Browne said.
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