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| 2019-05-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据离岸工程5月10日消息称该，Awilco液化天然气集团公司表示，2019年第一季度全球液化天然气(LNG)船运需求与2018年第一季度相比基本持平，而且自2018年第一季度以来，船队数量增长了10%。 这家拥有液化天然气运输船的挪威公司表示，远东地区相对温暖的冬季，以及中国和韩国的高储存量，导致该季度天然气购买兴趣减弱，2018年第四季度天然气价格下行压力延续至2019年第一季度。 由于需求疲软和货物充足，2019年第二季度交付的亚洲液化天然气期货价格持续下跌，直到4月初，此时买家开始为季节性较强的夏季月份做准备。 据菲尔恩利液化天然气公司估计，包括再装填在内的全球液化天然气贸易在今年第一季度同比增长了约8%至9%，但由于各流域之间缺乏套利空间，远东地区需求疲软，以及将液化天然气量转向欧洲，LNG运输平均航行距离下降了8%至9%。 2019年第一季度，中国液化天然气进口同比增长约21%。由于受暂时天气影响以及日本和韩国核电站重启，韩国、印度和日本的进口分别下降了19%、12%和9%。 2018年新增液化天然气铭牌产能4400万吨/年，其中2018年第四季度新增产能2700万吨/年，预计2019年第二季度前不会达到产能水平。 预计2019年，中国将新增液化天然气产能2000万吨/年，在建产能6300万吨/年，2020年至2024年投产。 根据行业分析师预测，新的液化天然气生产工厂的总潜在生产能力超过3.8亿吨/年，该工厂正处于FID前规划的不同阶段，市场分析人士估计，超过6000万吨/年的液化天然气可能在2019年实现FID，其中包括2月份批准的Golden Pass(1560万吨/年)。 22019年第一季度交付12艘货物，订购11艘货物。据船舶经纪商称，截至2019年第一季度末，15万立方米以上LNG船(不包括FSRU和FLNG)的订单为106艘，其中约40艘用于合同。另有27艘船计划于2019年交付，2020年交付35艘，2021年交付43艘，2022年交付4艘。 曹海斌 摘译自 离岸工程 原文如下： LNG Shipping Demand Flat in Q1 2019 Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping demand in Q1 2019 was essentially flat compared to Q1 2018 and coupled with a 10 % growth in the fleet since Q1 2018 rates suffered, said Awilco LNG Group. A relatively warm winter in the Far East and high storage levels in China and South Korea resulted in muted gas buying interest in the quarter and the downward gas price pressure seen in Q4 2018 continued throughout Q1 2019, said the Norwegian owner of LNG carriers. Due to weak demand and ample cargo availability Asian LNG futures prices for Q2 2019 delivery continued falling until early April, at which point buyers started positioning for the seasonally stronger summer months. Global LNG trade including reloads is estimated by Fearnleys LNG to have increased by about 8-9 % in Q1 y-o-y, but due to lack of arbitrage between the basins, weak demand in the Far East and redirection of volumes into Europe average sailing distances fell by the same number. LNG imports to China increased by about 21 % in Q1 2019 y-o-y. Imports to South Korea, India and Japan decreased by 19 %, 12 % and 9 % respectively, due to temporary weather effects and restarting of nuclear plants in Japan and South Korea. A total of 44 MTPA of new LNG nameplate production capacity started up in 2018, of which 27 MTPA added in Q4 2018 is not expected to produce at capacity until Q2 2019. A further 20 MTPA of new LNG production capacity is expected to commence production in 2019, followed by 63 MTPA under construction with startup 2020 to 2024. According to industry analysts new LNG production plants with total potential production capacity of over 380 MTPA are in various stages of pre-FID planning, and market analysts assess more than 60 MTPA as likely to reach FID in 2019 including Golden Pass (15.6 MTPA) which was sanctioned in February. In Q1 2019 12 vessels were delivered and 11 vessels were ordered. According to shipbrokers the orderbook at the end of Q1 2019 for LNG vessels above 150,000 cbm (excl. FSRU and FLNG) was 106 vessels, of which about 40 are assumed available for contract. A further 27 vessels are scheduled for delivery in 2019, 35 in 2020, 43 in 2021 and 4 in 2022. |
