过去6个月全球原油产量大幅下降

中国石化新闻网讯 据美国彭博新闻社5月31日伦敦报道，从俄罗斯到沙特阿拉伯，世界各地原油供应正在被削减或者中断原油供应的名单正在逐月增加。

这个新闻报道探讨的是石油市场供应的最大变化是否真的导致了全球石油短缺。答案是复杂的，取决于原油的种类和所选的时间范围。

最简单的供应措施是全球从地下开采所有的石油。从这个角度看，过去6个月全球原油产量确实出现了大幅下降，原因是OPEC+集团国家削减了石油供应。

美国能源情报集团公布的统计数据显示，4月份全球原油日产量为9679万桶。这比去年年底平均每天下降了200多万桶。但是稍微长一点的时间框架就会呈现出不同的画面。如果你将4月份的产量与去年同期相比，实际上增加了57万桶——与石油需求的增长相当。

尽管这样广泛地研究全球石油生产数据提供了一些洞见，但它遗漏了许多重要细节。

近几年来，亚洲和中东新建的炼油厂大多以重质、高硫原油为原料。这些原油的特点是大碳氢化合物分子的高比例，需要分解成更小的分子，以便制造高价值的运输燃料。它们还往往含有相对高浓度的硫，必须被去除，以满足反污染法规。

李峻 编译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Global crude production drops sharply over last six months

From Russia to Saudi Arabia, the list of crude oil supplies being curtailed or disrupted around the world is growing longer by the month.

This story examines whether the market’s biggest supply shifts are actually netting out into a global shortage of oil or not. The answer is a complex one, hinging on the type of crude in question and the time-frames selected.

The simplest supply measure is all the oil pulled out of the ground globally. On this view it does indeed look like global production has fallen sharply over the past six months, as the OPEC+ group of countries slashed supply.

Figures published by the Energy Intelligence Group show that global oil production was 96.79 MMbpd in April. That is a drop of more than 2 MMbpd since the end of last year. But just a slightly a longer time-frame gives a different picture. If you compare April with a year earlier, production is actually up, by 570,000 bpd―pretty much in line with oil demand growth.

While such a broad look at global oil production data offers some insight, it misses a lot of important detail.

Most of the new refineries built in Asia and the Middle East in recent years were designed to run on a diet of heavy, sour crudes. These barrels feature a high proportion of large hydrocarbon molecules that need to be broken down into smaller ones to make high-value transport fuels. They also tend to contain relatively high concentrations of sulfur that must be removed to meet anti-pollution regulations.