IEA：下调全球石油需求增长预测

中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯6月14日消息，国际能源署(IEA)周五表示，全球经济降温可能意味着2019年石油需求增长放缓，即使石油生产商保持着充足的供应。

国际能源署（IEA）在其备受关注的石油市场报告中，连续第二个月下调对全球石油需求增长的预测，从上个月的每日130万桶下调至120万桶。

IEA表示，在近几个月竭力应对供应方面的担忧后，石油市场目前的主要关注点是石油需求，因为经济疲软，理由包括全球贸易增长创下10年来的最低水平，以及日本暖冬和欧洲石化行业疲软。

这是本周第三份对石油需求持更为悲观态度的重要石油市场报告。此前，美国能源情报署(EIA)周二发布了悲观的需求数据，欧佩克周四也表达了同样的悲观看法。

IEA表示，虽然需求增长正在放缓，但满足预期的需求增长不太可能是一个问题，并指出美国将为非欧佩克国家每日190万桶的供应增长贡献90%。

该机构表示，再加上需求的不确定性，本月晚些时候在维也纳开会讨论延长减产期限时，欧佩克成员国及其盟友将考虑“来自竞争对手的持续供应增长”。

欧佩克及其盟友在2018年底实施了减产。此前，全球经济增长引发的担忧导致油价下跌。

许多沙特官员已经表示，该国希望将减产时间延长到2019年下半年。IEA的报告显示，沙特5月份的减产执行率为290%，因为该国将日产量减少了11万桶。这导致了欧佩克自2014年以来的最低供应量。

不过，欧佩克的遵守情况并不一致，伊拉克5月份增加了13万桶石油供应。

分析师表示，延长减产幅度在很大程度上取决于俄罗斯，石油行业资深人士对市场份额被美国夺走表示担忧。俄罗斯5月日产量减少12万桶，不过IEA将此归因于德鲁兹巴输油管道污染后的停产。

IEA表示，除其它计划外的中断和维护活动外，这一关键通道的中断，导致全球炼油厂的开工量降至两年来的最低水平。

尽管全球石油投资者将继续关注需求和全球经济增长，但今年早些时候主导市场的供应风险并未消散。

原文如下：

IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

A cooling global economy could mean slower oil demand growth in 2019 even while oil producers maintain plentiful supply, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

In its closely watched oil-market report, the IEA downgraded its forecast for global oil demand for a second straight month, to 1.2 million barrels a day from 1.3 million barrels a day the previous month.

After grappling with supply-side concerns in recent months, the oil market's main focus is now "on oil demand as economic sentiment weakens, " the IEA said, citing the weakest global trade growth in a decade, as well as a warm Japanese winter and a weakening European petrochemicals industry.

The release marked the third significant oil market report this week to take a more bearish stance on oil demand, after the Energy Information Administration released downbeat demand numbers Tuesday and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries echoed that negativity on Thursday.

While the rise of demand is softening, "meeting the expected demand growth is unlikely to be a problem," the IEA said, pointing out that the U.S. is set to contribute 90% of the 1.9 million barrel-a-day increase in non-OPEC supply growth.

Combined with uncertain demand, "relentless supply growth from their competitors" will play on the minds of OPEC nations and their allies when they meet later this month in Vienna to discuss extending supply cuts, the agency said.

OPEC and its allies implemented the cut in late 2018 after oil prices fell on global growth anxieties, partly fueled.

Numerous Saudi officials have signaled the country's desire to extend the cut into the second half of 2019, and the IEA reported that the kingdom's compliance rate with the cut in May was 290% as it reduced supply by 110,000 barrels a day. That contributed to the lowest OPEC supply since 2014.

OPEC compliance has been inconsistent, though, with Iraq increasing supply by 130,000 barrels in May.

Extending the output reduction largely depends on Russia, analysts say, with senior oil industry figures expressing concern about losing market share to the U.S. Russian output fell 120,000 barrels a day in May, although the IEA attributed that to outages following the contamination of the Druzhba pipeline.

Outages on that key channel, among other unplanned interruptions and maintenance activity, contributed to a drop in global refinery runs to their lowest level in two years, the IEA said.

While global oil investors are set to remain focused on demand and global economic growth, the supply risks that dominated markets earlier in the year haven't dissipated.