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| 2019-07-02 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯7月1日新加坡报道，周一上午交易时段，市场参与者权衡了欧佩克协议的乐观导向与周末其他区政治事态的发展情况，亚洲的含硫原油价差在窄幅区间内交易。 由于交易周期从8月转至9月，迪拜原油基准期货和洲际交易所布伦特原油期货之间的价差收窄。 8月份布伦特/迪拜原油价格的升水在6月28日(周五)的最后一个交易日为3.19美元/桶。截至新加坡时间周一上午11时，9月份的EFS(低硫原油相对高硫原油溢价的主要指标之一)为2.86美元/桶。 上周五，亚洲市场收盘时，9月份EFS估值为2.79美元/桶，周末基本保持在区间内波动。 亚洲高硫原油交易商认为，因市场普遍预期OPEC+将延长减产协议，中东高硫原油产量前景紧张。欧佩克和其他9个石油生产国于星期一和星期二在维也纳举行会议。 俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯上周末宣布达成一项共同协议，将俄罗斯与欧佩克的减产协议延长9个月。在维也纳举行的谈判得到了各方的支持，这增加了欧佩克成员国延长自2019年1月以来每日120万桶减产目标的可能性。 与此同时，美国能源信息署(Energy Information Administration)上周末发布的数据显示，4月份美国石油日产量首次突破1200万桶。这一数据巩固了美国目前作为全球最大原油生产国的地位，也是抵消欧佩克+减产紧缩效应的一个看跌因素。 美国原油产量(主要由轻质低硫原油构成)近几个月对高品质原油溢价构成了压力，因为市场上此类原油的供应过剩。 尽管国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization)设定的海上船舶低硫上限的截止日期即将于明年1月开始，但低硫原油和高硫原油之间的价差并未像人们预期的那样扩大。 普氏能源资讯周一公布的数据显示，从2019年1月至6月，布伦特/迪拜的EFS平均为1.79美元/桶。 通常，低于3美元/桶的水平表明，与迪拜基准价格挂钩的高硫原油供应异常紧张。 迪拜原油也在15个月内保持了现货溢价，最近一次出现升水是在2018年3月的迪拜M1/M3价差。迪拜M1/M3现货溢价在2019年上半年平均为1.18美元/桶。 洪伟立 摘译自 普氏能源资讯 原文如下： Asia sour crude market mulls OPEC deal, US data Sour crude spreads in Asia traded within a narrow range in mid-morning trading hours on Monday, as market participants weighed the benefits of a bullish OPEC deal against other geopolitical developments over the weekend. The spread between benchmark Dubai crude oil futures and ICE Brent futures narrowed as the front month contracts for both instruments rolled over from August to September trading cycles Monday. The August Brent/Dubai EFS was assessed at $3.19/b on its last trading day on June 28, Friday. As of Monday 11:00 am in Singapore, the new front month September EFS was at $2.86/b. September EFS was assessed at $2.79/b on Friday at the close of trading in Asia, remaining largely rangebound over the weekend. Sour crude traders in Asia see a tight outlook for high sulfur crude volumes produced in the Middle East as OPEC+ is largely expected to extend its production cut agreement. The group and nine other allied oil producing countries are meeting Monday and Tuesday in Vienna. Russia and OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia announced a mutual agreement over the weekend extending Russia's cooperation with OPEC for another nine months. The supportive kickoff to discussions in Vienna over the weekend increased the likelihood that OPEC members will also extend their end of the 1.2 million b/d production cuts in place since January 2019. Meanwhile, data released by the Energy Information Administration in the US over the weekend showed the country crossed 12 million b/d of production in April, which is a first. The threshold cements the US' position as top crude oil producer in the world at the moment, and is a bearish factor to counter the tightening effect of OPEC+ production cuts. US crude production, which largely comprises light, low sulfur barrels, has put pressure on high quality crude premiums in recent months with excess supply of such grades in the market. Despite a fast-approaching deadline for the International Maritime Organization's low sulfur cap on seaborne vessels starting January, spreads between low and high sulfur crude have refrained from widening as would be expected in this case. The Brent/Dubai EFS -- one of the main indicators of low sulfur crude's premium to high sulfur -- averaged $1.79/b from January to June 2019, Platts data showed Monday. Typically, a level under $3/b indicates an unusual tightness for high sulfur crude grades linked to Dubai benchmark prices. Forward structure for Dubai crude has also remained firmly in backwardation for 15 months now, with contango last seen in the Dubai M1/M3 spreads in March 2018. Backwardation for Dubai M1/M3 averaged $1.18/b over the first half of 2019, Platts data showed Monday.
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