2030年可再生能源将在美国能源结构中占一半

中国石化新闻网讯 中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价7月10日报道，可再生能源在美国能源结构中首次超过煤炭，这可能是美国能源行业发展轨迹上的一个转折点。据能源信息署（EIA）发布的一份报告称，“可再生能源发电量占总发电量的23%，煤炭发电量占20%。”季节性因素以及可再生能源发电量的长期增长，加上煤炭发电的减少，促使《福布斯》（Forbes）报道，“4月份全国范围内可再生能源超过煤炭使用量，这是可再生能源普及速度迅猛增长的显著证明。”

尽管这无疑是气候变化倡导者、环境保护主义者和其他清洁能源倡导者欢庆的理由，但这并不一定意味着煤炭将在美国消逝。正如《福布斯》在其文章《可再生能源在4月份击败煤炭》中指出的疑问——这种情况将会持续多久？4月份，当气温较温和，供暖和空调需求较低时，煤炭总是达到其年度最低水平，以至于许多天然气、煤炭和核发电机都计划在春季和秋季进行例行维护。”

相反， 4月份可再生能源和煤炭消耗水平“倒转”，且因为季节性融雪，水力发电也是如此。然而，由于“热空气和冷空气的分层效应， 4月风力普遍强劲，对今年的风力发电来说，也是一个特别好的月份，特别在某些大风天，“风带地区”的强风几乎可以满足全美国的电力需求。

尽管这些数字并不能确保可再生能源能在未来几年内取代煤炭的持续统治地位，但它们表明了美国能源结构的发展方向。只需查看EIA的月度发电量图表，就可以非常清楚地看到这一趋势的走向。

王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Can The U.S. Become 50 Percent Renewable By 2030?

This April, in what was potentially a turning point in the trajectory for the United States’ energy industry, renewable resources surpassed coal in the country’s energy mix for the first time ever. According to a report released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) says that “renewable sources provided 23 percent of total electricity generation to coal’s 20 percent,” crediting “both seasonal factors as well as long-term increases in renewable generation and decreases in coal generation,” prompting Forbes to report that “the excess of renewables over coal nationally in April is a remarkable testament to the pace of renewables penetration .”

While this certainly is cause for celebration for climate change advocates, environmentalists, and other proponents of clean energy, it does not necessarily mean that coal is on its way out for good in the United States. As Forbes points out in its article “Renewables Beat Out Coal In April, But For How Long?”, coal nearly always hits its lowest annual mark in April, “when temperatures are more moderate and demand for heating and air conditioning is lower,” to the extent that “many natural gas, coal, and nuclear generators schedule routine maintenance for the spring and fall, and many coal plants spent part of April offline for planned, temporary outages.”

Conversely, further contributing to April’s inversion of renewables and coal, spring is a strong season for wind thanks to “a layering effect of hot and cool air that are the thermal forces behind wind” and for hydropower as well, due to seasonal snowmelt. April, while generally a strong month for wind, was also a particularly good month for wind power this year, with strong winds in the “wind belt states” nearly supplying the entirety of the United States’ electricity demand on certain, particularly blustery days.

While these numbers don’t ensure the continued reign of renewables over coal in the next few years, they are, however, an indication of the direction that the U.S. energy mix is going. Look no further than the EIA’s monthly electricity generation chart to see very clearly where the trend is headed.