IMO将于2020年对加拿大实施重油供应紧缩政策

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价7月23日报道，日益紧张的重质原油供应很可能会帮助加拿大石油业度过的IMO 2020规则带来的不利影响。

新规则规定，海上船舶使用的燃料中硫含量最高为0.5%，而不是3.5%。加拿大西部原油的平均含硫量超过3.5%，而西德克萨斯中质原油的含硫量低于0.5%。然而，对加拿大原油的需求似乎并不仅仅局限于燃料加注。

由于美国炼油厂仍然需要重油来生产燃料，他们增加了从加拿大的进口。根据美国能源信息署(EIA)最新的每周石油状况报告，截至7月12日的四周平均日产量为358.5万桶。在这四周内，加拿大原油进口在7月第一周触及每日394.5万桶的纪录高位。

此前有报道称，由于铁路出口激增，加拿大西部地区对西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)的贴水已收窄至4月份以来的最低水平，这支持了加拿大原油市场的上涨趋势，尽管燃料排放法规即将改变。铁路运输石油是加拿大一些石油生产商出口原油的唯一途径，因为管道无法容纳所有的石油，即使去年新民主党政府强制削减了阿尔伯坦石油生产商的产量。

去年12月，在国际海事组织(IMO) 2020年规则出台之前，加拿大石油的硫含量会降低，因此价格会更低。当时，该行业本身也对其需求前景感到担忧。

然而， 2018年从33家炼油商调查的结果看，尽管预计需求将下降，多达40%的炼油商计划停止生产高硫燃料油，但其余炼油商没有停产计划。相反，他们正在升级炼油厂，以便进一步将剩余的石油产品加工成更多的汽油和柴油，同时还指望发电行业的稳定需求:当燃油变得足够便宜时，它就会成为煤炭的替代品。

就在人们认为金德摩根(Kinder Morgan)山地地貌让所有人都放弃了输油管道建设时，美国普莱恩斯公司（Plains All American）上周宣布，其西部走廊(Western Corridor)管道系统扩建后的日产量达到7万桶。此前，TC能源公司于6月份启动了Keystone管道系统的扩容计划，将日产量提高5万桶。对加拿大重质原油的需求似乎足够强劲，足以打消人们对IMO 2020影响的担忧。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Heavy Oil Supply Crunch Cushions Canada From IMO 2020

An increasingly tighter supply of heavy crude will in all likelihood help Canada’s oil industry weather the unfavorable effects of the so-called IMO 2020 rules, which stipulate a much lower allowable level of sulfur in bunkering fuel.

The new rules envisage a maximum of 0.5 percent sulfur content in the fuel used by maritime vessels versus 3.5 percent. The benchmark Western Canadian Select has an average sulfur content of more than 3.5 percent as opposed to the very light West Texas Intermediate, whose sulfur content is below 0.5 percent. However, it seems that demand for Canadian crude is not exactly restricted to just bunkering fuel.

The U.S. stopped importing any Venezuelan oil earlier this year as a result of the sanctions, but since U.S. refineries still needed heavy oil to produce fuels, they increased imports from Canada. The four-week average for the period to July 12 stood at 3.585 million bpd, according to the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report of the Energy Information Administration. Within that four-week period, Canadian crude oil imports hit a record-high of 3.945 million bpd in the first week of July.

In support of the positive trend for Canadian crude despite the looming change in bunkering fuel emissions regulations, Bloomberg reported last week the discount of Western Canadian Select to WTI had shrunk to the narrowest since April thanks to a surge in oil-by-rail exports. Oil-by-rail is the only way for some oil producers in Canada to export their crude as pipelines cannot accommodate all of the oil, even with the obligatory cuts imposed on Albertan producers by the NDP government last year.

Last December, several analysts projected cheaper Canadian oil due to its sulfur content ahead of the introduction of the IMO 2020 rules. The industry itself was worried about its demand prospects as well at the time.

Yet a 2018 Reuters poll among 33 refiners on their IMO 2020 plans found that although as much as 40 percent planned to stop producing high-sulfur fuel oil, the rest had no plans to suspend production despite the expected drop in demand. Instead, they were upgrading their refineries to further process the residual petroleum product into more gasoline and diesel, and also banking on stable demand from the power generation sector: when fuel oil becomes cheap enough, it serves as an alternative to coal.

While the IMO 2020 rules will not in themselves favor the Canadian oil industry, they will clearly not do the damage that experts expected last year. The latest indications are that there are new plans for pipeline capacity expansion.

At a time when one would think Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain woes had put everyone off pipelines, Plains All American last week announced open season for a 70,000-bpd expansion of its Western Corridor pipeline system. That’s after in June TC Energy launched an open season for a 50,000-bpd expansion of the Keystone system. Demand for Canadian heavy crude seems strong enough to quench any worries about the effects of IMO 2020.