|
| 2019-08-05 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
 |
 |
石化新闻 |
|
中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价8月3日报道，全球石油市场最大的影响因素之一是美国的石油生产。欧佩克最想知道的可能莫过于美国石油产量是从何时开始下降的。 过去10年美国石油产量的回升削弱了欧佩克对全球石油市场的控制。在不到八年的时间里，美国石油日产量从不足600万桶攀升至超过1200万桶。可以说，油价飙升是目前油价没有超过每桶100美元的唯一原因。 2005年至2019年，美国石油产量增长。欧佩克目前的策略似乎是等待美国石油产量开始下降，这样他们才能重新控制石油市场。 虽然有关美国石油生产复苏的报道主要集中在页岩油和致密油，美国最重要的产油区二叠纪盆地石油产量增长放缓，但美国近海石油生产也出现了大幅增长。过去10年，美国墨西哥湾沿岸的石油日产量从120万桶增加到200万桶。 因此，研究美国石油总产量的趋势可能具有指导意义。值得注意的是：美国能源信息署(EIA)报告称，自5月份以来，美国石油产量略有下降。关键问题在于，这是一种反常现象，还是一种持续趋势的开端。 针对二叠纪盆地的产量进行同样的分析，分析其每年的产量变化，结果很明显，美国的总体产量增长比二叠纪盆地的产量增长下降得更快。 自1月份以来，石油生产增长一直在放缓，而最近几个月的放缓速度有所加快。生产增长下降如此之快，以目前的速度，年底前将降至零以下。由于飓风“巴里”(Barry)来临，近海石油生产暂停，石油产量大幅下降。但是，即使假设经济下滑速度较年初有所放缓，经济增长似乎也将在一年内降至零以下。一旦经济增速降至零以下，美国的石油产量就会出现同比下降。 目前很难说这种下降是否会是永久性的。值得注意的是，从2015年开始，油价也出现了类似的下跌，但随着油价从每桶30美元的水平回升至每桶50美元以上，这一趋势在2017年发生了逆转。 由于油价从每桶100美元跌至每桶30美元以下，资本支出大幅削减，导致了油价上一次的下跌，因此目前的油价下跌是否会出现同样的急剧逆转是值得怀疑的——目前产量下降发生在石油价格下降幅度较小的时期。 无论如何，或许唯一能阻止当前经济放缓的，就是油价从当前水平飙升。但除非经济放缓得到遏制，否则美国的石油总产量很可能在一年内再次下降，而且很可能在年底前下降。 这是欧佩克希望看到的结果。很明显，欧佩克的策略是保持油价高企，直到美国石油产量开始下降，届时他们可以重新控制全球石油市场。 洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价 原文如下： The No.1 Reason Why Oil Isn’t Trading Over $100 One of the most important questions in the global oil markets revolves around U.S. oil production. There is probably nothing OPEC would like to know more than when U.S. oil production will begin to decline. The resurgence of U.S. oil production over the past decade diminished OPEC’s control of the global oil markets. In less than eight years, U.S. oil production climbed from under 6 million barrels per day (BPD) to more than 12 million BPD. This surge is arguably the only reason oil prices today aren’t above $100/barrel (bbl). U.S. oil production growth 2005 to 2019. OPEC’s current strategy seems to be to wait for U.S. production to begin declining so they can begin to regain control of the oil markets. They may not have to wait all that long. In last week’s article, I covered the slowdown in oil production growth in the Permian Basin. This is the most important oil-producing region in the U.S., but of course it isn’t the only one. And while most of the coverage of the resurgence of U.S. oil production has been primarily focused on shale oil and tight oil, U.S. offshore oil production has also made a big jump. Over the past decade, Gulf Coast oil production in the U.S. rose from about 1.2 million BPD to about 2.0 million BPD. Thus, I thought today it might be instructive to look at the trends in total U.S. oil production. Note that in the previous graphic, it looks like production may be starting to turn down right at the end of the time frame. In fact, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported a slight downward trend in U.S. oil production since May. The key question is whether this is an anomaly, or the beginning of a sustained trend. Applying the same analysis that I did last week to Permian Basin production — which looked at year-over-year production changes — it becomes clear that overall U.S. production growth is declining even faster than Permian Basin production growth. From this graphic, production growth has been slowing since January, and the slowdown has accelerated in recent months. Production growth is falling so fast that at the current pace, it would fall below zero before the end of the year. The steep decline from the most recent EIA report was influenced by offshore production shutting in ahead of Hurricane Barry. But, even if we assume the slower rate of decline from earlier in the year, it looks like growth will fall below zero within a year. Once growth falls below zero, that represents a year-over-year decline in U.S. production. It’s hard to say whether the current decline will be permanent. Note that there was a similar decline that began in 2015, but that reversed direction in 2017 as oil prices recovered from the $30/bbl level back up to over $50/bbl. It’s doubtful that the current decline will see the same sort of sharp reversal, as the previous decline was a result of sharp cuts in capital spending as oil prices fell from the $100/bbl level to below $30/bbl. The current production decline is taking place during a period of a smaller decline in oil prices. Regardless, probably the only thing that can arrest the current slowdown is a spike in oil prices from current levels. And unless that slowdown is arrested, total U.S. oil production will likely once again be in decline within one year — and possibly by year-end. This is the outcome OPEC is hoping for. It is clear that their strategy is to keep oil prices propped up until U.S. oil production begins its decline, at which point they can reassert control over the global oil markets. |
