经历下跌后的石油市场难以恢复投资者信心

中国石化新闻网讯 据8月2日彭博社伦敦报道，周四，西德克萨斯中质原油价格创下45年半以来的最大跌幅，唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁对从中国进口商品征收新关税，重燃需求担忧。此次暴跌提醒人们，在2018年第四季度，美国基准原油价格蒸发逾40%后，原油市场一直难以恢复投资者信心。

自去年同期以来，WTI在纽约商品交易所的持有量下降了约12%。相比之下，从2014年底到2018年5月，这一数字几乎翻了一番。欧洲期货交易所(ICE Futures Europe exchange)对全球基准布伦特原油(Brent)的同样衡量标准仍低于去年5月的峰值。

荷兰国际银行大宗商品策略主管沃伦帕特森(Warren Patterson)表示:“这一疲软反映了宏观担忧形势下宏观资金对进入市场的兴趣有限。”。“看起来确实需要很多东西才能让市场上涨一点，而对于大规模抛售来说，这并不算什么。”

交易量也显示出谨慎。今年迄今为止，布伦特原油平均每天交易83.1万份合约。这比去年同期的908，000人有所下降。WTI的合同总量从去年前七个月的130万份下滑至今年的平均120万份。

投资者的冷漠不仅限于原油。包括迈克尔哈特内特在内的美银美林分析师在8月1日的一份报告中表示：今年迄今为止，大宗商品总流入量下降了1.9%。

尽管如此，贸易紧张和对全球增长的担忧仍在拖累石油。

法国巴黎银行大宗商品战略主管哈里·齐林吉里安(Harry Tchilinguirian)表示:“在这种情况下，人们自然会对投资石油期货的长期缺口犹豫不决。“在美联储周三帮助美元升值的一项平淡决定和美中贸易对抗进一步升级的情况下，经济前景变得更加不确定。”

孙子舒 编译自 彭博社

原文如下，

Oil market struggles to regain investor confidence after previous declines

West Texas Intermediate crude fell the most in 4 1/2 years on Thursday as President Donald Trump reignited demand worries with a threat of new tariffs on imports from China. The slump was a reminder that crude markets have struggled to regain investor confidence after the U.S. benchmark wiped out more than 40% of its value during the final quarter of 2018.

Holdings of WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- or aggregate open interest -- are down about 12% since the same time last year. By contrast, they almost doubled from the end of 2014 to May 2018. The same measure for global benchmark Brent on the ICE Futures Europe exchange is still lower than its peak in May of last year.

“This weakness reflects macro concerns and the limited appetite for macro money to enter the market,” says Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV. “It does seem you need a lot to get the market up a bit, and not much for a big selloff.”

The wariness also shows up in trading volumes. For Brent, an average of 831,000 contracts have traded every day so far this year. That’s down from 908,000 during the same period last year. WTI aggregate volume has slipped to an average of 1.2 million contracts this year from 1.3 million through the first seven months of last year.

Investor indifference isn’t limited to crude. Overall flows into commodities are down 1.9% so far this year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts including Michael Hartnett said in a report dated Aug. 1.

Still, trade tensions and concerns about global growth are weighing on oil.

“Under these circumstances there is a natural hesitancy for money in initiating long exposure in oil futures,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA. “Between an underwhelming Fed decision on Wednesday lending a hand to strengthen the dollar and a further escalation in the U.S.-China trade confrontation, the economic outlook becomes even more uncertain.”