三大原因致使欧佩克市场影响力下降

中国石化新闻网讯 据9月2日Trend报道，据英国凯投宏观(Capital Economics)研究和咨询公司的数据显示，假设欧佩克保持不变，其市场影响力将会减弱，原因有三个。

该公司表示：“首先，我们预测，由于新管道和出口基础设施的增加，以及美国页岩技术成本不断下降，美国石油产量将继续上升。因此，美国生产商的市场份额和定价权将继续增加。其次，电池价格正在迅速下跌，预计，未来几年电池价格还将进一步下跌。因此，基于电池的汽车将变得更便宜，也更受欢迎。因此，作为迄今为止石油需求最重要来源的公路运输行业的石油消费量将进入长期结构性下降。此外，随着应对碳污染的持续努力继续，其它行业的需求也可能相对较快地见顶，尤其是在航空和发电领域。第三，随着需求减少，价格可能面临下行压力。这可能会刺激欧佩克内部的许多国家在配额上有所动作。毕竟，大多数欧佩克国家还有几十年的石油储备，他们可能希望趁需求相对强劲的时候，就可以大量开采。”

该公司补充道：“诚然，欧佩克有可能生存下来，因为大多数欧佩克成员国的基础成本都低于该组织以外的国家。然而，价格可能会受到限制，因为过高的价格会刺激市场进入者。”

邹勤 摘译自 Trend

原文如下：

OPEC’s market power to diminish for three key reasons

Assuming that OPEC remains intact, its market power will diminish for three key reasons, Trend reports citing UK-based Capital Economics research and consulting company.

"First, we forecast that US oil production will continue to rise helped by the addition of new pipeline and export infrastructure, as well as the falling cost of US shale technology. As a result, the market share and pricing power of US producers will continue to increase," the company said in its report.

Second, battery prices are falling rapidly, and Capital Economics suspects that they will decline further in the years ahead.

"Consequently, electric battery-based vehicles will become cheaper and significantly more popular. As such, oil consumption by the road transport sector, by far the most important source of oil demand, will enter a long-term structural decline," said the company.

"Elsewhere, demand from other sectors is also likely to peak relatively soon, particularly in aviation and electricity generation, as ongoing efforts to tackle carbon pollution continue."

Third, as demand diminishes, prices are likely to come under downwards pressure, according to Capital Economics.

"This will presumably incentivise many countries within OPEC to cheat on their quotas before then. After all, most OPEC countries still have decades worth of oil reserves left, which they would presumably want to drill now while demand is still relatively strong."

"Admittedly, it is plausible that OPEC will survive, since most OPEC members have a lower-cost base than countries outside the organisation. However, prices would presumably be restricted as too high a price would incentivise market entrants."