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| 2019-09-04 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站9月2日伦敦报道 最近几天，欧洲上游原料丙烯成本和丙酮现货价格之间的巨大差距（与5月创下的三年来的最低点相差不远）已经明显缩小。在一个令人不快的年份里，苯酚/丙酮生产商可以得到一些受人欢迎的缓解，正如他们所描绘的2020年规划那样。 虽然上周周五评估的9月份欧洲丙烯合同价格在西欧西北部（NWE）的目的地交货价格基础上下降了50欧元，至860欧元/吨，但丙酮现货价格只稳定下降了20-30欧元/吨，至440-500欧元/吨。 自2017年底以来，丙烯的价格一直高于丙酮现货价格，现在丙酮的售价约为丙烯价格的一半，这迫使欧洲生产商通过销售副产品苯酚来补贴丙酮。 这一举措被业界认为是复杂和不可持续的，而且这两种产品的利润率在一段时间内都在寻求提高。 由于今年的现货需求和供应已基本枯竭，苯酚在欧洲的销售大多是以合约的形式进行，这限制了生产商通过价格调整来重新平衡市场的回旋余地。同时需根据原料苯合同价格的变动每月调整合同，并按季度调整附加费。 下一轮的合同附加费用谈判将于本周开始，而该行业也将开始2020年的规划阶段，预计盈利能力将在这些讨论中发挥作用。 一位生产商表示：“今年全年，我们一直在消化（低）丙酮利润率和（高）苯价格。这是指第四季度谈判和2020年规划的临近时期，我们不会在第四季度寻找差价。” 今年需求疲软，尤其是由于汽车行业表现不佳，生产商提高价格和提高利润的努力受到影响，汽车行业是苯酚和丙酮下游产品双酚A（BPA）和甲基丙烯酸甲酯（MMA）的主要受益者。 王磊 摘译自 ICIS 原文如下： Europe acetone gains kick start industry's 2020 phenol planning phase The yawning gap between upstream feedstock propylene costs and acetone spot prices – not far off the more-than-three-year lows hit in May - has narrowed significantly in Europe in recent days, bringing some welcome relief in a vexing year for phenol/acetone producers as they sketch out plans for 2020. While European propylene contract prices for September, assessed on Friday last week, declined by €50 to €860/tonne on a free delivered (FD) basis in northwest Europe (NWE), acetone spot prices firmed by €20-30/tonne to €440-500 FD NWE. Propylene costs have been higher than acetone spot prices since late 2017, and acetone now sells for around half the price of propylene, forcing European producers to subsidise acetone with sales of co-product phenol. This arrangement has been regarded as complicated and unsustainable by the industry, and higher margins on both products have been sought for some time. Phenol is largely sold on a contractual basis in Europe as spot demand and supply has largely dried up this year, limiting producers' wiggle room to rebalance the market through price adjustments. Contracts are adjusted monthly based on feedstock benzene contract price movements, and an adder fee that is adjusted quarterly. The next round of contract adder fee talks are due to begin this week, while the industry also begins its planning phase for 2020, and profitability is expected to feature in these discussions. “We've been swallowing [low] acetone margins and [high] benzene prices for the whole of this year,” one producer said, referring to the approaching period of negotiations for the fourth quarter and planning for 2020. "We're not going to be looking for poor prices in Q4." Producers' efforts to increase prices and improve margins have been undermined this year by weaker demand, particularly as a result of weaker performance of the automotive sector, which is a major recipient of phenol and acetone’s downstream products bisphenol-A (BPA) and methyl methacrylate (MMA).
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