三个主要因素将决定明年油价趋势

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价9月6日报道，根据雷斯塔能源公司表示，明年油价趋势将由三个主要因素决定。

在一份最新市场报告中，雷斯塔能源石油市场研究主管BjørnarTonhaugen主张，2020年石油市场的平衡取决于以下因素：

1、无全球衰退

2、欧佩克继续削减产量

3、IMO 2020新规的影响

Tonhaugen称，明年欧佩克削减延期可以平衡市场，因为我们相信IMO 2020新规将创造更多的原油需求。而且，全球经济需要避免急剧放缓，石油日需求量恢复到100万至120万桶的正常增长率。他补充道，然而，如果未能协调一致，欧佩克可能需要进行更深入的削减以支持市场。

在本周发布的最新"石油市场平衡报告"中，雷斯塔能源公司发现，即使在目前的油价情况下，明年的石油市场也可以达到平衡，因为最新数据显示，欧佩克原油日产量明年将达到3010万桶，而上个月的报告中则为2950万桶。

郝芬 译自 今日油价

原文如下：

Three Essential Factors For Oil Prices In 2020

Three essential factors will determine the direction of the oil price next year, according to Rystad Energy.

In a market update, Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy, argues that a balanced oil market in 2020 is contingent on these pillars:

1. No global recession

2. Continued OPEC production cuts

3. The effect of new IMO 2020 regulations

“Markets can balance with an extension of OPEC cuts through 2020, as we believe the IMO 2020 regulations will create more demand for crude oil. Moreover, the global economy needs to avoid a sharp slowdown and oil demand recover to more normal growth rates of between 1 million and 1.2 million barrels per day,” says Tonhaugen.

“If the stars fail to align, however, OPEC may need to discuss much deeper cuts to support the market,” Tonhaugen added.

In its latest Oil Market Balances Report, published this week, Rystad Energy finds that the market can come into balance in 2020, even at current oil prices, as our latest revisions suggest a call-on-OPEC crude oil reaching 30.1 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, compared to 29.5 million barrels per day in last month’s report.