常规油气发现处于70年来最低点

中国石化新闻网讯 据油气周刊10月2日消息，IHS Markit在最近的一份报告中表示，过去3年常规油气发现处于70年来的最低水平，预计不会出现大幅反弹。

在过去10年里，以常规油气开采为目标的未经勘探的钻探活动有所减少，导致新发现的油气储量处于较低水平，其中2014年油价暴跌后降幅最大。报告称，这些趋势具有深远的影响，可能会限制未来常规储量的增加。

报告称，常规探明储量的下降不仅是由低油价推动的，还受到周期较短的非常规项目的竞争，以及质疑长期、高成本前沿项目的金融投资者的推动。这些因素使钻探活动远离了可能发现更多油气储量的地区，并出于对长期石油需求的担忧，减少了上游勘探投资。

IHS Markit高级顾问、该分析报告的主要作者之一Keith King表示:“这里的主要驱动因素之一是，美国独立油气公司的投资从国际勘探转向了美国的页岩气开发——周期更短的项目——具有更大的灵活性，以应对不断变化的市场环境。如果油价下跌，这些运营商可以迅速关闭一个非常规项目，并在下个月停止或推迟钻探。”

除了常规钻井的全面减少外，该报告还指出了近年来勘探成果不佳的其他原因。其中最能说明问题的是，常规油田的平均发现面积随所勘探盆地的成熟程度而有很大差异。

IHS Markit表示，在当前规避风险的环境下，油气行业更倾向于在现有基础设施附近的成熟盆地进行钻探，在该种盆地运营商可以在2至3年内启动一个项目。

裘寅 编译自 油气周刊

原文如下：

IHS Markit: Conventional oil, gas discoveries at 70-year low

Conventional oil and gas discoveries during the past 3 years are at the lowest levels in 7 decades and a substantial rebound is not expected, said IHS Markit in a recent report.

The low levels in discoveries come as a result of a pullback during the past 10 years in the wildcat drilling that targets conventional oil and gas plays—most drastically after oil prices collapsed in 2014. The trends have far-reaching implications that could limit future conventional reserves additions, the report said.

The decline in conventional discoveries was not only driven by low oil prices, but by competition from short cycle-time unconventional projects and by financial investors who question long-term, high-cost frontier projects, the report said. These factors shifted drilling away from areas where potential discoveries could be larger and reduced upstream exploration investment due to concerns about long-term oil demand.

“One of the main drivers here is the shift of investment by US independents from international exploration to shale opportunities in the United States—shorter cycle-time projects—with greater flexibility to respond to changing market conditions,” said Keith King, senior advisor at IHS Markit and a lead author of the analysis. “These operators can quickly turn an unconventional project off and stop or postpone drilling next month if oil prices fall.”

In addition to the overall reduction in conventional drilling, the report identified additional reasons for the modest exploration results in recent years. One of the most telling is that the average discovery size of conventional fields varies greatly with the maturity of the basins being explored.

In the current risk-averse environment, the industry prefers drilling in mature basins near existing infrastructure where operators can bring a project online in 2 to 3 years, IHS Markit said.