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| 2019-10-12 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据油气杂志网2019年10月11日巴黎报道，国际能源署(IEA)日前在其最新一期的月度石油市场报告中把2019年和2020年的全球石油日需求增长预测分别下调了10万桶至100万桶和120万桶。 对2019年的下调主要反映了一种技术调整，因为新的数据显示，美国在2018年的需求增加抑制了今年的增长数字。对于2020年，这一下调反映了全球国内生产总值(GDP)前景有所下降。 IEA表示，今年全球的石油需求将出现两种截然不同的情况。在今年上半年，需求同比增长了42.5万桶/天，这是自最近一次衰退以来最弱的需求增长。然而，今年下半年，IEA预计需求将增长157万桶/天，近期的数据支持了这一预测：非经合组织国家需求增长在7月和8月分别是100万桶/天和150万桶/天，中国需求增长稳健，同比增幅超过了50万桶。经合作组织成员国的需求仍处于相对疲弱的状态，今年下半年同比增长有所恢复，这得益于2018年下半年的基数较低。需求还受到布伦特原油价格的支撑，布伦特原油价格较去年同期水平下跌了30%以上。 由于全球GDP增长预期下降，IEA把明年全球石油需求增长预测下调到了120万桶/天。 李峻 编译自 OGJ 原文如下： IEA lowers oil demand growth forecasts for 2019, 2020 In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency reduces its oil demand forecasts for 2019 and 2020, both by 100,000 b/d, to a respective 1 million b/d and 1.2 million b/d. For 2019, the reduction mainly reflects a technical adjustment due to new data showing higher US demand in 2018 which has depressed this year’s growth number. For 2020, the reduction reflects a lower global gross domestic product outlook. According to IEA, demand for this year is seeing two very different halves. In the year’s first half, demand expanded by 425,000 b/d year-over-year, which is the weakest demand growth since the latest recession. For the second half of this year, however, IEA is projecting demand growth of 1.57 million b/d with recent data lending support to the outlook: non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) demand growth in July and August was 1 million b/d and 1.5 million b/d, respectively, with Chinese demand growing solidly by more than 500,000 b/d year-over-year. The OECD countries remain in a relatively weak state, although year-over-year growth returns through this year’s second half, helped by a comparison vs. a low base in the latter part of 2018. Demand also is supported by prices (Brent) that are more than 30% below year-ago levels. For 2020, IEA’s oil demand outlook is cut back to a 1.2 million b/d due to a weaker GDP growth forecast.
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