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| 2019-10-14 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据今日原油价格10月13日报道，国际能源署(IEA)以全球经济疲软，再次下调石油需求预测。 该机构在其最新的《石油市场报告》中预测，2019年石油日需求量将增加100万桶，2020年将增加120万桶，两者均较之前的估计下调了10万桶。 随着疲软的经济持续放缓消费增长，这是一系列下调需求预测的最新举措。值得注意的是，尽管评级下调，IEA的语气基调似乎仍然相对乐观。该机构表示，其2019年的评级下调与2018年数据的修正有关，而且认为需求正在上升，至少与今年早些时候相比是如此。 该机构指出，2019年上半年的石油需求同比增幅为日均40万桶，这令人震惊。但该机构预计今年下半年的需求增长将强劲反弹，达到每日160万桶。IEA补充称，低油价可能刺激需求。 尽管国际能源机构乐观地认为，今年下半年的经济将远远强于上半年，但许多经济数据正朝着错误的方向发展。今年全球贸易额仅增长1.2%，低于去年的3%左右。工业生产也停滞不前。汽车销售、制造业活动以及其他一系列指标都发出了警报。国际能源署说：“贸易量的下降已经影响到了船用燃料的交付。它还对卡车运输以及柴油消费产生了重大影响。” 王桌芳 摘译自 今日原油价格 原文如下： IEA Draws Gloomy Oil Demand Outlook For 2020 The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its oil demand forecast yet again, citing the weakening global economy. In its latest Oil Market Report, the agency predicts that demand will grow by 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2019 and 1.2 mb/d in 2020, both of which are downward revisions by 100,000 bpd from previous estimates. It is the latest in a series of downgrades to demand forecasts, as the weakening economy continues to slow consumption growth. Notably, despite the downgrade, the tone from the IEA still seems relatively upbeat. The agency said that its downgrade for 2019 had more to do with revisions to its 2018 data than anything else, and it sees demand on the upswing, at least relative to earlier this year. The agency pegged oil demand growth in the first half of 2019 at shockingly weak 0.4 mb/d year-on-year. But it sees demand growth rebounding strongly in the second half of this year to 1.6 mb/d. The IEA adds that low prices could stoke demand. While the IEA is optimistic that the second half of the year will be vastly stronger than the first half, a lot of the economic data is trending in the wrong direction. Global trade volumes are only set to grow by 1.2 percent this year, down from around 3 percent last year. Industrial production is also stagnating. Car sales, manufacturing activity and a variety of other indicators are raising red flags. “The slowdown in trade volumes has already affected bunker deliveries. It has also had a strong impact on truck transportation and thus diesel consumption,” the IEA said.
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