阿根廷的天然气产量将崛起

中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带10月16日消息称，在部分国有的YPF的带领下，雪佛龙、埃克森美孚、壳牌和其他公司帮助将2018年的天然气产量提高到了40亿立方英尺/天，这是自2010年以来的最高水平。不久前，人们认为产量已经达到峰值，从2006年的43亿立方英尺/天下降到2014年的33亿立方英尺/天。

阿根廷页岩发展的基础是巴塔哥尼亚北部内乌肯盆地的Vaca Muerta地层EIA认为Vaca Muerta页岩气的技术可采储量为310万亿立方英尺，是阿根廷已探明储量的25倍多，在地质学上可与德克萨斯州南部的Eagle Ford页岩相媲美。由于到目前为止，只有4- 6%的油田面积进入了开发阶段，人们的兴趣应该会很高。Vaca Muerta目前的产量约为12亿立方英尺/天。

然而，对于一个希望将天然气产量提高一倍甚至三倍的国家来说，存在着各种各样的挑战。政府去年将Vaca Muerta页岩气的底价定为每百万英热7.50美元，由于产量持续攀升，预算吃紧。这迫使政府收回了部分价格支持措施，令整个行业感到不安。随着天然气产量的增加，阿根廷甚至恢复了对邻国智利和巴西的管道运输。该国于6月6日迎来了第一批LNG出口货物。但是，领导层必须继续专注于国内增长。天然气现在是全球的首选燃料，阿根廷也不例外。重要的是，阿根廷的天然气消耗量仍比产量高出15%至20%。

曹海斌 摘译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

Argentina Primed for Great Natural Gas Rise

Led by partially state-owned YPF, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and others helped grow gas production to nearly 4 Bcf/d in 2018, the highest level since 2010. Not long ago, it was assumed that output had peaked, falling from 4.3 Bcf/d in 2006 to 3.3 Bcf/d in 2014.

The basis of Argentina’s shale development is the Vaca Muerta (“Dead Cow”) formation located in the Neuquén Basin in northern Patagonia. Geologically comparable to the Eagle Ford shale in southern Texas, EIA puts Vaca Muerta’s technically recoverable shale gas resources at 310 Tcf, or over 25 times more than Argentina’s proven reserves. Interest should remain high since only 4-6 percent of acreage in the play has so far entered the development phase. Production in the Vaca Muerta is now ~1.2 Bcf/d.

Yet, a variety of challenges exist for a country looking to double or even triple its gas output. The government put a floor price on Vaca Muerta shale gas at $7.50 per MMBtu last year, which stressed budgets as production continued to climb. That forced a backtracking on some of the price supports, which upset the industry. Indeed, unpredictable price controls, overtaxing, water shortages, a lack of regulatory clarity, and short infrastructure are just a few realities that continue to block major shale development outside the free markets of the U.S. and Canada.

Shale development in Argentina does enjoy broad political support, something that appears to be becoming less clear in the U.S. The Vaca Muerta has been a signature agenda item for President Macri. The left-wing opposition ticket of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner though are also supportive. Just recently, the U.S. government’s Overseas Private Investment Corporation approved $300 million in financing for Vista Oil and Gas Argentina, a small shale company operating in the Vaca Muerta.

With rising gas production, Argentina has even resumed piped shipments to neighboring Chile and Brazil. And the country had its first LNG export cargo on June 6. Leadership, however, must remain focused on domestic growth. Gas is now the global go-to fuel, and Argentina is no different. Importantly, Argentina still uses 15-20 percent more gas than it produces.