IEA：东南亚在未来几年可能成为化石燃料净进口地区

中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社新加坡报道，国际能源署（IEA）在一份报告中警告称，东南亚在未来几年内可能成为化石燃料的净进口国，这将增加该地区各国政府的财政负担，并增加碳排放。

该机构在其东南亚年度展望报告中称，尽管预计随着经济转向能源密集程度较低的制造业、服务业，以及更高效率行业，该地区的能源需求增长将放缓，但仍会出现这种情况。

IEA表示，2018年，东南亚已成为每天400万桶石油的净进口地区，而天然气需求的强劲增长减少了天然气的出口盈余。

IEA表示，就煤炭而言，该地区最大产油国印尼去年的煤炭产量仍远高于4亿吨煤炭当量，但该国国内需求的增长以及对中国、印度的出口增加可能会减少其过剩现象。

IEA表示：“这些趋势表明，东南亚在未来几年将成为化石燃料的净进口国。”

IEA表示，该地区2011年供应过剩总量为1.2亿吨石油当量，到2018年已降至略高于3000万吨石油当量。

IEA表示，对进口的日益依赖也引发了人们对能源安全的担忧。例如，该地区对石油进口的总体依赖程度预计在2040年将超过80%，高于目前的65%。

东南亚目前的能源进口成本正在上升：

IEA表示，在政策不变的情况下，东南亚的能源需求预计到2040年将增长60%，占全球能源使用增长的12%，而其经济将增长一倍多，这比该地区自2000年以来80%的增长率要慢。

IEA表示，东南亚的电力需求增长速度在世界上是最快的，平均每年增长6%。然而，那里仍有约4500万人无法获得电力。报告补充称，该地区在到2030年实现普及电力供应方面进展顺利。

IEA称，东南亚拥有近10%的世界人口，到2040年，东南亚的石油需求将超过900万桶/日，高于目前的650万桶/日。

IEA表示：“尽管生物燃料的消费有所增加，但石油继续主导着道路运输需求。”

"移动（车辆）的电气化，除了两轮车和三轮车之外，仅取得有限的进展。这一方式表明，东南亚地区从目前拥挤的道路和糟糕的城市空气质量相比变化不大。”

预计未来几十年对煤炭的需求也将稳步上升，这主要是新燃煤发电厂推动的，尽管这些项目面临的不利因素，包括越来越难以为新设施获得有竞争力的融资。

IEA表示，该地区对天然气进口的依赖日益增加，使得燃料的价格竞争力下降，尽管它似乎很适合该地区快速增长的城市和轻工业。

IEA补充说：“根据我们的预测，天然气需求最大的增长来源是工业消费者，而不是发电厂。”

IEA表示，可再生能源预计将发挥更大的作用，但如果没有更强有力的政策框架，到2040年，可再生能源在发电中所占的比例只会从目前的24%上升到30%。

IEA预计风能和太阳能将迅速增长，而水电和现代生物能源（包括生物燃料、生物物质、沼气以及其他废物产品产生的生物能源）将继续是东南亚可再生能源组合的支柱。

詹晓晶 摘自 路透社

原文如下：

South-east Asia may become net fossil fuel importer in coming years: IEA

Southeast Asia could become a net importer of fossil fuels in the next few years, raising the financial burden on governments and increasing carbon emissions in the region, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in a report.

This comes despite expectations of slower growth in the region’s energy demand as economies shift towards less energy-intensive manufacturing and services, and greater efficiency, the agency said in its annual Southeast Asia outlook.

Southeast Asia was already a net oil importer at 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, while strong growth in demand for natural gas has reduced the surplus of gas for export, the world’s energy watchdog said.

For coal, output from the region’s top producer, Indonesia, remained well above 400 million tonnes of coal equivalent last year but increases in domestic demand and exports to China and India could reduce its surplus, the IEA said.

“These trends point to Southeast Asia becoming a net importer of fossil fuels in the next few years,” the agency said.

The region’s overall surplus of supply over demand at 120 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2011 had been eroded to just above 30 mtoe in 2018, it said.

Growing reliance on imports also raises concerns about energy security, the IEA said. For example, the region’s overall dependence on oil imports is forecast to exceed 80% in 2040, up from 65% today.

Southeast Asia’s current pathway is heading for rising energy import bills:

With no change in policy, Southeast Asia’s energy demand is expected to grow by 60% by 2040, accounting for 12% of the rise in global energy use as its economy more than doubles, the IEA said. This was slower than the region’s 80% growth since 2000.

Southeast Asia’s growth in electricity demand, at an average of 6% per year, has been among the fastest in the world, the IEA said. Still, some 45 million people there still lack access to electricity. The region is well on the way to achieving universal access to electricity by 2030, it added.

Oil demand in Southeast Asia, home to nearly 10% of the world’s population, would surpass 9 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040, up from just above 6.5 million bpd now, the IEA said.

“Oil continues to dominate road transport demand, despite an increase in consumption of biofuels,” the IEA said.

“Electrification of mobility, with the partial exception of two and three wheelers, makes only limited inroads. This pathway suggests little change in Southeast Asia from today’s congested roads and poor urban air quality.”

Demand for coal is also projected to rise steadily over the coming decades, largely fueled by new coal-fired power plants, despite headwinds facing such projects that include increasing difficulty to secure competitive financing for new facilities.

The IEA said the region’s increasing reliance on imports of natural gas made the fuel less price-competitive though it appeared to be a good fit for the fast-growing cities and lighter industries in the region.

“In our projections, it is industrial consumers rather than power plants that are the largest source of growth in gas demand,” the IEA added.

Renewable energy is set to play a larger role, but without stronger policy frameworks the share of renewables in power generation would rise only to 30% by 2040, from the current 24%, the IEA said.

Wind and solar energy are expected to grow rapidly, while hydropower and modern bioenergy – including biofuels, biomass, biogas and bioenergy derived from other waste products – would remain the mainstays of Southeast Asia’s renewables portfolio.