由于供应过剩 美国天然气价格接近25年低点

中国石化新闻网讯 据全球能源新闻网2019年10月30日休斯顿报道，在10年前曾帮助美国掀起天然气热潮的页岩领域里，切萨皮克能源公司本月搁置了其最后一部在用钻机。这家曾经是美国第二大天然气生产商如今面临的问题不是缺乏天然气，而是天然气供过于求。

根据政府和行业估计，美国天然气产量长期稳定的增长——大部分是页岩油繁荣的副产品——已导致这种燃料的价格正在走向25年来的最低点，其日产量超过了美国国内消费，今年预期将达到916亿立方英尺，比去年增加10%。

美国生产商一直在寻求把美国的大部分天然气过剩产能转化为液化天然气(LNG)并出口。但尽管在亚洲和欧洲的LNG销售量不断增加，然而由于新建LNG出口厂陆续投产，今年全球LNG价格出现了大幅下跌。

美国著名油田服务公司贝克休斯公司的统计数据显示，10月份美国只有16%的在用钻井在勘探天然气，这是30多年来的最低水平。

今天的天然气供过于求在几年前是没有预料到的。2012年，美国钢铁和化工企业曾激烈游说反对美国出口天然气，称这会导致美国消费者面临价格上涨。

咨询公司伯克利研究集团的天然气专家汤姆· 蔡表示，疲软的价格表明这些担忧是那么不合时宜。美国的天然气价格“至少在未来十年里”可能保持在每百万英热单位3美元以下。

但全球性信息公司IHS Markit认为这位天然气专家的预测可能过于乐观。明年美国天然气平均价格将低于每百万英热单位2美元，这将是1995年以来的最低价格，目前约为每百万英热单位2.7美元。

李峻 编译自 全球能源新闻

原文如下：

U.S. NatGas Prices Near 25-year Low as Glut Weighs

In the shale field that helped launch the U.S. natural gas boom a decade ago, Chesapeake Energy Corp this month set aside its last drilling rig. The problem for the once No. 2 U.S. gas producer was not a lack of gas, but too much of it.

A long, steady increase in U.S. gas production – much of it a byproduct of the shale oil boom – has prices for the fuel heading toward a 25-year low, with output outpacing U.S. consumption and expected to hit 91.6 billion cubic feet, up 10% over last year, according to government and industry estimates.

Producers have sought to turn much of the U.S. surplus to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and export it. But even with rising sales in Asia and Europe, global LNG prices have tumbled this year as new export plants opened.

This month, 16% of active U.S. drilling rigs were seeking natural gas, the lowest in more than 30 years, according to data from oilfield firm Baker Hughes Co.

Today's gas glut was not expected a few years ago. U.S. steel and chemical makers fiercely lobbied against U.S. exports in 2012, arguing they would lead to price spikes for consumers.

Weak prices show how misplaced those concerns were, said Tom Choi, a gas expert at consultancy Berkley Research Group. U.S. natural gas could remain under $3 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) "for at least the next decade," he said.

That may be too optimistic. IHS Markit projects U.S. gas prices next year will average below $2 per mmBTU, the lowest prices since 1995, and down from the current about $2.70.