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| 2019-11-14 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据OGJ网站11月13日报道，10月，亨利枢纽天然气现货均价为每百万英热单位2.33 美元，较9月份下跌23¢。 美国能源信息署在最新的《短期能源展望》中指出，下降主要反映了强劲的库存注入。然而，预计该国大部分地区的低温会导致价格在11月初上涨，EIA预测2019年最后两个月亨利枢纽的均价为每百万英热单位2.73美元 。 EIA在本月的STEO报告中预测，亨利枢纽现货到2020年均价为每百万英热单位2.48 美元，较2019年的均价下降13¢。2020年较低的预测价格反映了美国天然气需求的下降和天然气出口增长的放缓，即使预计天然气产量增速将放缓，该年度的库存仍将高于5年平均水平。 EIA预测，2019年美国干气年日均产量将为921亿立方英尺，比2018年增长10％。EIA预计，由于价格变化和未来钻探之间的滞后，2020年天然气产量的增长将大大减少，今年第三季度的低价将减少2020年上半年的天然气定向钻探。EIA预测2020年天然气日均产量为949亿立方英尺。 EIA预计，由于几个新的液化项目上线，美国LNG的日均出口量将在2019年达到47亿立方英尺，到2020年达到64亿立方英尺。 今年，三个新的液化设施--卡梅隆液化天然气、自由港液化天然气和厄尔巴岛液化天然气--启用了他们的首批生产线。今年7月，液化天然气项目的天然气交付量创下了新的纪录，日均为60亿立方英尺。10月，卡梅伦和自由港的新生产线开始陆续交付时，天然气的产量提高至66亿立方英尺。 卡梅隆 LNG于5月出口了第一批货物，Corpus Christi LNG于7月新投产2号生产线和自由港于9月出口。 厄尔巴岛计划在年底之前运送其第一批出口货物。 到2020年，卡梅伦，弗里波特和厄尔巴岛预计将剩余的生产线投入使用，到明年年底，美国LNG的总日出口量将达到89亿立方英尺。 由于产量增加，在2019年注入季节，美国储气库的注入量超过了过去5年（2014-18年）的平均水平。 在注入季节开始的四月初，工作气体库存比同期的五年平均水平低28％。到10月31日，美国的工作气体库存总额达到37.62亿立方英尺，比5年平均高出1%，比一年前高出16%。 郝芬 译自 OGJ 原文如下： EIA: Lower US gas prices expected in 2020 The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.33/MMbtu in October, down 23¢/MMbtu from September. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration noted that the decline largely reflected strong inventory injections. However, forecast cold temperatures across much of the country caused prices to rise in early November, and EIA forecasts Henry Hub prices to average $2.73/MMbtu for the final 2 months of 2019. In this month’s STEO report, EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.48/MMbtu in 2020, down 13¢/MMbtu from the 2019 average. Lower forecast prices in 2020 reflect a decline in US gas demand and slowing gas export growth, allowing inventories to remain higher than the 5-year average during the year even as gas production growth is forecast to slow. EIA forecasts that annual US dry gas production will average 92.1 bcfd in 2019, up 10% from 2018. EIA expects that gas production will rise much less in 2020 because of the lag between changes in price and in future drilling, with low prices in this year’s third quarter reducing gas-directed drilling in the first half of 2020. EIA forecasts gas production in 2020 will average 94.9 bcfd. EIA expects US LNG exports to average 4.7 bcfd in 2019 and 6.4 bcfd in 2020 as several new liquefaction projects come online. This year, three new liquefaction facilities—Cameron LNG, Freeport LNG, and Elba Island LNG—commissioned their first trains. Gas deliveries to LNG projects set a new record in July, averaging 6 bcfd, and increased to 6.6 bcfd in October when new trains at Cameron and Freeport began to ramp up. Cameron LNG exported its first cargo in May, Corpus Christi LNG’s newly commissioned Train 2 in July, and Freeport in September. Elba Island plans to ship its first export cargo by yearend. In 2020, Cameron, Freeport, and Elba Island expect to place their remaining trains in service, bringing the total US LNG export capacity to 8.9 bcfd by yearend. US gas storage injections outpaced the previous 5-year (2014–18) average during the 2019 injection season as a result of rising production. At the beginning of April, when the injection season started, working inventories were 28% lower than the 5-year average for the same period. By Oct. 31, US total working gas inventories reached 3,762 bcf, which was 1% higher than the 5-year average and 16% higher than a year ago.
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