亚洲将继续成为全球石油和能源需求增长中心

中国石化新闻网讯 据11月19日Trend报道，欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德萨努西巴金多（Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo）在奥地利维也纳举行的第五届亚洲能源和石油展望技术会议上表示，当前，亚洲是全球石油和能源需求增长的主要中心，同时随着刺激经济快速增长的动力的增加，亚洲将继续成为全球石油和能源需求增长的主要力量。

欧佩克秘书长表示:“我们于11月5日正式发布的《2019年世界石油展望》证实了这一观点。”

他指出，全球石油日需求量预计将增加约1200万桶，从2018年的9870万桶/天增加到2040年的1.106亿桶/天。随着人口快速增长、中产阶级不断扩大和经济的迅速扩张，这一增长的驱动力将主要来自亚洲。

巴金多补充道，非经合组织的石油需求预计在2018年至2040年期间增加2140万桶/天。其中，印度和中国将以540万桶/天和440万桶/天的增长速度处于领先地位。2018年到2040年期间，印度和中国的经济总量在全球经济中的占比，将从27%增长到40%。

从中长期来看，亚太地区也将成为炼油产能扩张的领头羊。在全球范围内，所有评估项目的原油蒸馏新产能预计将在2019年至2024年期间达到800万桶/天，其中超过70%来自亚太和中东地区。

正如巴金多所说，亚洲炼油产能的增加必然需要更多的原油。这反映在对全球原油贸易量的预测中，即亚太地区的原油进口将扩大。最新的估计显示，从中东到亚太地区的原油出口在2025年到2040年期间将增加大约700万桶/天，至2300万桶/天左右，这将使亚太地区成为中东原油的主要出口地。

王佳晶 摘译自 Trend

原文如下：

Barkindo: Asia will continue to be leading center for oil & energy demand growth

Asia is and will continue to be the leading center for oil and energy demand growth as it seeks to fuel its rapidly growing economy and support the requirements of a rapidly expanding population, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, at the 5th Technical Meeting on Asian Energy and Oil Outlook in Vienna, Austria, Trend reports citing OPEC’s website.

“This is confirmed by our 2019 World Oil Outlook, which was officially launched on 5 November,” said the OPEC secretary general.

He pointed out that global oil demand is expected to increase by roughly 12 million barrels per day (mb/d), rising from 98.7 mb/d in 2018 to 110.6 mb/d in 2040. “The majority of this growth will come from Asia due rapid population growth, an expanding middle class and swift economic expansion.”

Barkindo went on to add that non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) oil demand is expected to rise by 21.4 mb/d between 2018 and 2040. “Of this, India and China will lead the way with an estimated demand growth of 5.4 mb/d and 4.4 mb/d, respectively.”

He noted that from 2018 to 2040, the economies of India and China combined are forecast to expand from 27 percent of the global economy to 40 percent.

“In both the medium- and long-term, the Asia-Pacific region is also set to be a leader in the expansion of refining capacity. At the global level, 8 mb/d of new crude distillation capacity from all assessed projects is expected between 2019 and 2024, with over 70 percent in the Asia-Pacific and Middle East,” said the OPEC secretary general.

As Barkindo said, increased refinery capacity in Asia will certainly require greater quantities of crude.

“This is reflected in the forecast for trade flows, which sees Asia-Pacific imports expanding. Our latest estimates show crude exports from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region increasing by around 7 mb/d between 2025 and 2040, rising to approximately 23 mb/d. This will make the Asia-Pacific region the primary outlet for Middle Eastern crude,” he added.