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| 2019-11-22 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据全球石化新闻网2019年11月20日休斯顿报道，美国天然气页岩繁荣带来的丰富廉价乙烷原料为聚乙烯生产商提供了一个关键的供应成本优势，从而带来了一场基础设施复兴，将美国转变为一个全球聚乙烯供应商，并日益将目光投向全球最大的聚乙烯需求中心亚洲。 然而，随着第一波新的美国裂解装置和聚乙烯厂的建设接近尾声，全球聚乙烯市场将在2020年面临供应过剩和价格压力，而全年的聚乙烯需求预计将滞后。 亚洲、欧洲和土耳其也面临着类似的挑战：在全球经济增速放缓带来的持续不确定性的背景下，全球市场树脂供应充足。 在2017-2019年的第一波创业潮中，13个新的聚乙烯厂将使北美的聚乙烯年产能增加35%，增加到2700多万吨。计划在本世纪20年代开工的15个聚乙烯厂将使北美的聚乙烯年总产能再增加26%，达到3435万吨。 价格正在显示聚乙烯供应过剩的压力。到今年11月初，高密度聚乙烯吹塑型产品的价格自去年3月中旬以来下降了43%，降至每吨782美元FAS休斯顿。在此期间，线型低密度聚乙烯下跌了41%至772美元/吨FAS休斯顿, 而低密度聚乙烯下跌了37%至871美元/吨FAS休斯顿。 至少有一家新聚乙烯厂将在2020年初投产，这个新聚乙烯厂就是利安德巴赛尔公司位于休斯顿船舶航道旁的的55万吨/年的高密度聚乙烯厂。这个新聚乙烯厂原定于今年年中投产，然而，市场参与者预计，来自供应过剩带来的价格压力将使这个新聚乙烯厂推迟到2020年投产。 一位聚乙烯交易商表示：“我们认为，到明年第一季度，聚乙烯价格将不会上涨。在全球范围内，聚乙烯供应已经非常充足。” 李峻 编译自 全球石化新闻 原文如下： Global polyethylene oversupply to weigh on prices in H1 2020 The US natural gas shale boom's bountiful cheap ethane feedstock has given producers a key supply cost advantage, bringing about an infrastructure renaissance transforming the US into a global supplier, with its sights increasingly on Asia, the largest demand center. However, with the first wave of new US crackers and polyethylene plants reaching its end, global polyethylene markets will enter 2020 facing oversupply and pressured prices, with demand expected to lag behind throughout the year. Asia, Europe and Turkey see similar challenges with abundant resin supply amid economic slowdowns and continued uncertainty. Thirteen new PE plants in the first wave of startups from 2017-2019 will increase North American PE capacity by 35% to more than 27 million mt/year. The 15 plants slated to start up through the 2020s will push that overall capacity up by another 26% to 34.35 million mt/year. Prices are showing oversupply pressure. By early November 2019, HDPE blowmolding prices had fallen 43% to $782/mt FAS Houston since mid-March 2018. In the same span, LLDPE fell 41% to $772/mt FAS, and LDPE fell 37% to $871/mt FAS. At least one of the new plants slated to start up by year-end 2019 will ramp up in early 2020, that being LyondellBasell's new 550,000 HDPE plant alongside the Houston Ship Channel. The plant had been slated for startup in mid-2019. However, market participants expect price pressure from oversupply to linger into 2020. "We don't see prices rising in Q1 2020," a PE trader said. Globally, there's already so much supply."
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