欧洲2020年或将成为丙烯腈净进口地区

中国石化新闻网讯 据全球石化新闻2019年11月28日伦敦报道，在英力士腈类公司关闭了其旗的Seal Sands厂以后，欧洲预计在2020年将成为丙烯腈(ACN)的净进口地区。然而，与此同时，亚洲和美国市场明年上半年可能面临CAN价格下行压力，因为中国的产能不断增长，而对衍生产品的需求低迷。

英力士腈类公司10月份曾表示，由于较高的安全和环境成本，该公司计划关闭其位于英格兰东北部提赛德的Seal Sands厂。市场参与者暗示，英力士腈类公司此举将导致欧洲ACN产量减少30%多。

根据市场消息来源，欧洲地区目前的丙烯腈年需求量为100多万吨，而其年产能大约为114万吨。因此，取消Seal Sands厂28万吨/年的产量将意味着欧洲地区将变得依赖进口。

然而，据一些消息人士称，尽管亚洲ACN市场供应过剩，但与欧洲内部和美国到欧洲的交货时间相比，从亚洲到欧洲的运输时间更长，这使亚欧交易更容易受到价格波动的影响。

今年5月至6月，欧洲ACN现货价格上涨了51%，至今年高点的每吨1890美元，高于今年早些时候的每吨1250美元。根据标普普氏全球能源资讯的统计数据，截至11月底，ACN现货价格已回落至每吨大约1455美元CIF ARA。

李峻 编译自 全球石化新闻

原文如下：

Europe to turn net acrylonitrile importer in 2020

Europe is expected to become a net importer of acrylonitrile (ACN) in 2020, after Ineos Nitriles closes its Seal Sands plant. At the same time, however, Asian and US markets could face downward pressure in the first half of next year, amid growing capacities in China and lackluster demand for derivative products.

Ineos said in October that it plans to close the Seal Sands plant in Teesside, in northeast England, because of high safety and environmental costs, in a move that market participants have suggested will result in a loss of just over 30% of Europe's ACN production.

Demand in the region is currently at more than 1 million mt/year, according to market sources, against output capacity of around 1.14 million mt/year. As a result, removing Seal Sands' 280,000 mt/year production would mean the region becoming dependent on imports.

However, despite a building supply glut in the Asia ACN market, longer shipping times from Asia to Europe -- compared with intra-Europe and US-to-Europe deliveries -- make Asia-Europe transactions more exposed to price volatility, according to some sources.

European ACN spot prices jumped 51% to a 2019 high of $1,890/mt CIF ARA in May-June, up from $1,250/mt earlier in the year. By the end of November, the price had fallen back to around $1,455/mt CIF ARA, according to S&P Global Platts data.