因裂解产量削减致需求下降 石脑油溢价保持高位

中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工网1月14日报道，由于石化生产商为抵御微弱的利润而削减产量，本月亚洲将失去超过30万吨的石脑油需求，但炼油厂的维护正在减少塑料和化学原料的供应，使溢价保持稳定。

削减裂解产量——将石脑油分解成塑料和化学成分的裂解装置——已将原料的现货价格普遍拉低至日本基准价格的折让水平。石化制造商最后一次采取这一措施是在2008年金融危机期间。

但是，亚洲最大的石脑油供应商中东的许多炼油厂目前正在周转，这支撑了该产品的价格。

IHS Markit首席石油分析师Matthew Chew表示，沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国的几个炼油厂的好转将降低（中东）出口，并抵消部分因削减裂解产量而减少的需求。

例如，沙特阿美道达尔炼油和石化公司(SATORP)表示，将从1月13日至2月29日对2号生产线机组进行定期维护。

阿布扎比国家石油公司（Adnoc）也在上个月的一份声明中表示，其Ruwais工厂将在2020年初进行例行维护。

石脑油贸易商表示，沙特阿拉伯至少另外两个设施Rabigh和Ras Tanura也计划在第一季度进行维护。沙特阿美公司无法证实这一点，后者拒绝置评。

Refinitiv石油研究的数据反映了这些转变的影响，该数据表明，计划于2月到达北亚和新加坡的中东石脑油到目前为止约为180万吨，与一月份预定的近230万吨的量相比大幅下降。

这有助于保持石脑油现货溢价相对较高，基准开放规格等级出售给韩国丽水，上周，以成本加运费（C＆F）为基础，对日本报价约为每吨18.50美元。

尽管这比10月份的每吨30美元的多年高点下跌了近40％，但比2019年同期高出18倍以上。

郝芬 译自 烃加工网

原文如下：

Naphtha premiums remain high amid demand loss from cracker cuts

Asia will lose more than 300,000 tonnes of naphtha demand this month as petrochemical makers cut output to combat weak margins, but refinery maintenance is reducing supply of the plastics and chemicals building block, holding premiums steady.

Run cuts at crackers - units that break down naphtha into components to make plastics and chemicals - have historically pulled spot prices for the feedstock into discounts to benchmark prices in Japan. The last time petrochemical makers took such a step was during the 2008 financial crisis.

But a number of refineries are now in turnaround in the Middle East, Asia’s top naphtha supplier, underpinning prices for the product.

“The several refinery turnarounds in Saudi Arabia and (United Arab Emirates) will lower (Middle Eastern) exports and offset some of the demand reduction due to cuts in crackers runs,” said Matthew Chew, principal oil analyst at IHS Markit.

Saudi Aramco Total Refining and Petrochemical Company (SATORP), for example, has said it will conduct scheduled maintenance on Train 2 units from Jan. 13 to Feb. 29.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) as well said in a statement last month that its Ruwais facility would undergo routine maintenance in early 2020.

Naphtha traders have said at least two more facilities in Saudi Arabia, Rabigh and Ras Tanura, are also scheduled to undergo maintenance in the first quarter. This could not be confirmed with Saudi Aramco, which has declined to comment.

The effect of these turnarounds is reflected in data from Refinitiv Oil Research showing that Middle East naphtha slated to arrive in North Asia and Singapore in February is about 1.8 million tonnes so far, sharply lower from January’s scheduled volumes of almost 2.3 million tonnes.

That has helped to hold naphtha spot premiums relatively high, with benchmark open-specification grade sold to Yeosu, South Korea, last week at about $18.50 a tonne to Japan quotes on a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis.

Although this was down nearly 40% from multi-year highs of $30 a tonne in October, it was more than 18 times higher versus the same period in 2019.