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| 2020-01-16 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据能源新闻1月15日消息称，美国能源情报署(EIA)周二在其《短期能源展望》(STEO)中表示，美国天然气产量和需求在今年创下历史新高后，将在2021年下降。 EIA预计，2021年干气产量将从2020年创纪录的947.4亿立方英尺/天降至941.1亿立方英尺/天。当前的历史最高水平是2019年的920.3亿立方英尺/天。 EIA负责人Linda Capuano在一份声明中表示：“我们预计天然气产量将在2021年下降，因为相对较低的天然气价格将导致天然气定向钻探减少。” 这将是自2016年以来产量首次出现年度下降。 EIA还预计，美国天然气消费量将从2020年的867.3亿立方英尺/天降至2021年的857.0亿立方英尺/天，主要原因是可再生能源发电量增加导致电力需求减少。当前的历史最高纪录是2019年的852.8亿立方英尺/天。 这将是自2017年以来消费量首次出现年度下降。 该机构预测，美国天然气净出口将在2020年达到73亿立方英尺/天，到2021年将达到89亿立方英尺/天，高于2019年的53亿立方英尺/天。2017年，美国60年来首次成为天然气净出口国。 EIA预计，在2016年取代煤炭之后，2020年和2021年，天然气仍将是美国发电厂的主要燃料。 该公司预计，2020年天然气发电份额将升至38%，2021年将降至37%，与2019年持平。 煤炭发电的比例预计将从2019年的24%下滑至2020年和2021年的21%。 2020年和2021年，核能发电的比例预计将在20%左右，而可再生能源发电的比例将从2020年的19%升至2021年的22%，使可再生能源成为美国第二大电力来源。 EIA预计，2020年美国电力行业将消耗4.796亿吨煤，为1977年以来的最低水平;2021年将消耗4.641亿吨煤，为1976年以来的最低水平，是1976年以来的最低水平。相比之下，2019年煤炭消耗量为5.444亿吨，是1979年以来的最低水平。 美国碳排放自2007年达到峰值60.03亿吨以来已大幅下降，因电力行业的燃煤量减少。 EIA预计，到2020年，碳排放量将从2019年的51.69亿吨降至50.64亿吨，为1991年以来的最低水平，到2021年为49.9亿吨，为1988年以来的最低水平。 曹海斌 摘译自 能源新闻 原文如下： U.S. natgas output, demand to fall in 2021 after hitting records in 2020 U.S. natural gas production and demand will decline in 2021 after hitting record highs this year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday. EIA projected dry gas production will fall to 94.11 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from a record 94.74 bcfd in 2020. The current all-time high is 92.03 bcfd in 2019. “We expect natural gas production to decline in 2021, as relatively low natural gas prices contribute to a reduction in natural gas directed drilling,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement. That would be the first annual decline in production since 2016. EIA also projected U.S. gas consumption would fall to 85.70 bcfd in 2021 from a record 86.73 bcfd in 2020 due mostly to reduced power demand as renewables produce more electricity. The current all-time is 85.28 bcfd in 2019. That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017. The agency forecast U.S. net gas exports would reach 7.3 bcfd in 2020 and 8.9 bcfd in 2021, up from 5.3 bcfd in 2019. The United States became a net gas exporter in 2017 for the first time in 60 years. EIA projected gas would remain the primary U.S. power plant fuel in 2020 and 2021 after supplanting coal in 2016. It projected the share of gas generation would rise to 38% in 2020 before easing to 37% in 2021, the same as in 2019. Coal’s share of generation was forecast to slide to 21% in 2020 and 2021 from 24% in 2019. Nuclear’s share of generation was expected to hold around 20% in 2020 and 2021, while renewables would rise from 19% in 2020 to 22% in 2021, making renewables the second biggest source of the nation’s power. EIA projected the power sector would burn 479.6 million short tons of coal in 2020, the lowest since 1977, and 464.1 million tons in 2021, the lowest since 1976. That compares with 544.4 million tons in 2019, the lowest since 1979. U.S. carbon emissions have mostly declined since peaking at 6,003 million tonnes in 2007 as the power sector burns less coal. EIA projected carbon emissions would slip from 5,169 million tonnes in 2019 to 5,064 million tonnes in 2020, the lowest since 1991, and 4,990 million tonnes in 2021, the lowest since 1988.
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