美国天然气出口将随新LNG设施投产而增长

中国石化新闻网讯 据世界液化天然气新闻1月19消息称，美国能源情报署(EIA)预测，到2021年，美国仍将是天然气净出口国。

EIA在其短期能源展望(STEO)中称，2020年天然气净出口预计平均每日73亿立方英尺(Bcf/d)， 2021年为89亿立方英尺/天，较2019年增加36亿立方英尺/天。

2017年，美国60年来首次成为天然气净出口国。

近年来天然气出口的强劲增长主要是由于液化天然气(LNG)出口的增加。2019年，美国液化天然气平均每日出口为50亿立方英尺，比2018年高出20亿立方英尺，这是因为一些新设施投入使用其第一个液化装置（称为生产线）。

EIA称，今年将有几列新列车投入运营:路易斯安那州卡梅伦液化天然气的2号和3号生产线，得克萨斯州自由港液化天然气的3号生产线，乔治亚州厄尔巴岛的5-10号生产线。

2021年，在德克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂设施的第三条生产线预计将上线，使美国液化总负荷产能达到102亿立方英尺/天。

随着设施逐渐达到满负荷生产，液化天然气出口预计将继续增长，2020年平均为65亿立方英尺/天，2021年为77亿立方英尺/天。

E IA还预测，管道出口到2021年将继续增长。美国管道出口总额从2019年的78亿立方英尺/天上升到2020年的81亿立方英尺/天，到2021年上升到85亿立方英尺/天。

美国对墨西哥的管道出口在跨境管道扩张完成后开始增加。根据EIA的《天然气月刊》，从2019年1月至10月，美国输往墨西哥的天然气管道日平均出口量为51亿立方英尺，比2018年的年平均水平高出0.5亿立方英尺。

尽管自2016年以来，美国从加拿大进口的天然气管道净进口量一直在稳步下降，但从长远来看，由于从加拿大进口的天然气在冬季仍将是美国的供应来源，预计美国将长期保持加拿大天然气净进口国的地位。

曹海斌 摘译自 世界液化天然气新闻

U.S. natural gas exports to grow with new LNG capacity start-ups

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecasts the United States to remain a net exporter of natural gas through 2021.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA said net natural gas exports are forecast to average 7.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2020 and 8.9 Bcf/d in 2021, a 3.6 Bcf/d increase from 2019.

In 2017, the United States became a net natural gas exporter on an annual basis for the first time in 60 years.

Strong natural gas export growth in recent years is mainly the result of increased exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). U.S. LNG exports averaged 5.0 Bcf/d in 2019, 2.0 Bcf/d higher than in 2018, as a result of several new facilities placing their first liquefaction units—referred to as trains—in service.

This year, several new trains are expected to begin operations: Trains 2 and 3 at Cameron LNG in Louisiana, Train 3 at Freeport LNG in Texas, and six remaining Moveable Modular Liquefaction System (MMLS) units (Trains 5–10) at Elba Island in Georgia, EIA said.

In 2021, the third train at the Corpus Christi facility in Texas is scheduled to come online, bringing the total U.S. liquefaction baseload capacity to 10.2 Bcf/d.

LNG exports are projected to continue to grow—averaging 6.5 Bcf/d in 2020 and 7.7 Bcf/d in 2021—as facilities gradually ramp up to full production.

EIA also forecasts that pipeline exports will continue to grow through 2021. Gross U.S. pipeline exports rise from 7.8 Bcf/d in 2019 to 8.1 Bcf/d in 2020 and to 8.5 Bcf/d in 2021.

U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico began increasing after expansions of cross-border pipeline capacity were completed. From January through October 2019, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged 5.1 Bcf/d, which is 0.5 Bcf/d higher than the 2018 annual average, according to EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly.

Although U.S. net natural gas pipeline imports from Canada have been steadily declining since 2016, the United States is projected to remain a net natural gas importer from Canada through the long-term because imports from Canada will remain a supply source for the United States during the winter.