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| 2020-04-01 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社3月31日报道，IHS Markit预计，第二季度，全球石油日产量将减少或停产至多1000万桶，而市场需求将出现缺口，石油库存将不断填充。 该公司在一份报告中表示，预计世界各地的产量都将下降，其中欧佩克成员国、俄罗斯和美国受到的冲击最大。与去年同期相比，第二季度的石油需求预计将减少1640万桶/天。 需求锐减导致从南非到加拿大的炼油厂关闭，市场上原油过剩。与此同时，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯也提高了产量，以增加市场份额，这些都增加了石油盈余。 IHS Markit预计，停产产量将在年中左右下降，布伦特原油期货价格将在4月份跌至10美元/桶左右，一些生产商将遭遇负价格，即出售价格低于成本价。 假设2021年全球需求回暖, 到2021年第四季度，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯将比美国更有能力保持甚至增加产量，美国的日产量将降至880万桶，约为今年第一季度的三分之二。同时，IHS预计沙特阿拉伯的产量会更高。 洪伟立 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： World Oil Output May Fall By 10 Million Barrels a Day, IHS Says IHS Markit expects as much as 10 million barrels a day of world oil production to be cut or shut-in from April through June as storage fills up and demand craters due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Output is projected to fall in every region of the world, with OPEC members, Russia, and the U.S. among the hardest hit, the consultancy said in a note. Oil demand in the second quarter is expected to decline by 16.4 million barrels a day compared with the same period last year. The collapse in demand has shut refineries from South Africa to Canada, leading to excess barrels in the market. It also comes as Saudi Arabia and Russia have boosted production in a bid to gain market share, adding to the surplus. IHS Markit sees the volume of shut-in production easing around mid-year. The consultancy still expects that the price of Brent futures will fall to around $10 a barrel in April and some producers will experience negative prices, where they pay the buyer to take the crude. Assuming global demand returns next year, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be better positioned to maintain or even increase production compared to the U.S. By the fourth quarter of 2021, U.S. production will have fallen to 8.8 million barrels a day, about two thirds of what it was in the first quarter of this year. At the same time, IHS expects Saudi Arabia’s output to be higher.
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