油气行业2020年预测支出将减少850亿美元

中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻5月5日消息称，数据和分析机构GlobalData表示，为保护资产负债表，维持股东派息并保留现金，石油和天然气公司已进入生存模式，减少预测支出。

GlobalData的石油和天然气分析师Daniel Rogers表示：“该行业近期的悲观短期前景迫使许多公司重新评估其远期支出。迄今为止，该行业的100多家公司已被削减逾850亿美元。采取这些措施是为了度过前所未有的市场不确定性，并且短期内可能会有很多的公司效仿。”

综合石油和天然气公司报告了2020年最大的资本支出削减量。上游业务、尤其是美国页岩钻探业务、全球勘探预算以及未经批准的开发项目都出现了大幅资本削减。

Rogers继续说：“整个价值链上，该行业削减投资的严重程度各不相同，以中游为重点的公司削减的原始预算通常较少。这可能是因为在油价波动期间，中游行业为参与者(尤其是管道运营商)提供了相对较高的保护，因为现金流对大宗商品价格的依赖程度较低，而对供应量的依赖程度更高。”

尽管并非所有油田服务集团的成员都宣布了2020年资本支出的确切修订，但其重要性是显而易见的。该该集团拥有最高的平均削减百分比，虽然在一个较低的量。进入2020年的时候，服务成本已经被之前的2014/2015年的低迷压低了，最新的发展对已经在苦苦挣扎的细分市场带来了又一冲击。在全球范围内，钻井、勘探和开发支出的下降将对油田服务提供商产生冲击。

曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻

原文如下：

Over US$85bn of 2020 forecast expenditure erased from oil and gas sector, says GlobalData

To protect balance sheets, maintain shareholder pay-outs and preserve cash, oil and gas companies have gone into survival mode, reducing forecast expenditure says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Daniel Rogers, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The bearish near-term outlook for the industry has forced many companies to reassess their forward expenditure. To date, more than US$85bn has been cut from over 100 companies across the industry. These measures have been taken to survive the unparalleled market uncertainty and it is likely that more companies will follow in the near term.”

Integrated oil and gas companies have reported the largest volume of capex reductions for 2020. Significant capital reductions have been seen in upstream operations, particularly for US shale drilling but also for global exploration budgets, and unsanctioned developments.

Rogers continues: “The severity of investment cuts in the sector varies across the value chain with midstream-focused companies generally sacrificing less of their original budgets. This is likely attributable to the relatively higher level of protection that the midstream sector offers players (particularly for pipeline operators) during periods of oil price volatility, since cash flow is less dependent on commodity prices and more dependent on supply volumes.”

Although not all members of the oil field service group have announced exact capex revisions for 2020, the gravity is clear. The group holds the highest average reduction percentage, albeit at a far lower volume. Coming into 2020 service costs were already beaten down by the previous downturn in 2014/2015 and the latest developments deal another blow to an already struggling segment. Globally, drops in drilling, and exploration and development spending will have a knock on impact for the oil field service providers.