美国天然气产量将在11月触底

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价5月19日报道，当前，石油和天然气生产商削减预算，减少钻探活动。在美国，随着现有油田的产量自然下降，钻探活动会影响未来的油气产量。运营商还关闭了一些生产油田，导致相关的天然气产量暂停。Rystad Energy估计，美国天然气产量(除墨西哥湾外的48个州)将在11月触底，即825亿立方英尺/天，然后在2021年开始逐渐缓慢复苏。

这是油田逐渐恢复生产，以及当前可视减产情况的假设，预计天然气产量将逐月下降，直到11月。具体来说，天然气产量已经从2019年11月的约940亿立方英尺/天降至2020年4月的889亿立方英尺/天。

与此同时，5月份的产量预计为860亿立方英尺/天。在11月的预测低值之后，预期的缓慢复苏，会在2021年年中增加约10亿立方英尺/天，在2021年年底还会再增加10亿立方英尺/天。

Rystad Energy页岩研究主管阿特姆?阿布拉莫夫(Artem Abramov)表示：“随着许多以石油业务为核心的生产商实施大规模减产，人们可能会认为，这种损失也将很快开始影响相关的天然气产量。不过，天然气产量的下降速度，并不像市场迄今所预期的那么快，”

截至11月的115亿立方英尺/天的同比降幅中，大部分将是自然下降所致。由于关井缩减的总降幅仅为17亿立方英尺/天。

这一预测是基于WTI油价会在2021年上半年逐渐回升至每桶35美元，而Henry Hub天然气价格会在2021年上半年逐渐回升至每百万英热2.5美元。要想快速恢复，WTI价格必须稳定在每桶30美元至35美元之间。

随着液化天然气和国内需求的全面复苏，预计2021年供应将至少比市场预期的低60-90亿立方英尺/天。预期Henry Hub的价格将在每百万英热2.5 - 3.0美元之间，以触发天然气盆地的复苏，因此完全有能力平衡即将到来的供应缺口。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Gas Output To Hit Rock Bottom In November

The Covid-19 pandemic has forced oil and gas producers to slash budgets and reduce drilling activity, which in the US always affects future hydrocarbon output as existing fields naturally decline. Operators also shut some producing oil fields, halting in turn their associated gas output. Rystad Energy estimates that US gas production (Lower 48 States excl. Gulf of Mexico) will reach its lowest point in November, at 82.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) before a gradual slow recovery begins in 2021.

We expect that gas production will decline every single month until November in our base-case scenario. This assumes a gradual reactivation of producing fields and is based on what curtailments we realistically see happening, rather than taking a basin-wide analogical approach. To put the decline into context: Gas production has already dropped from about 94 Bcfd in November 2019 to 88.9 Bcfd in April 2020.

Meanwhile, May’s output is expected at 86 Bcfd. After the forecasted November low, the slow recovery that we anticipate is only expected to add around 1 Bcfd by mid-2021 and 1 Bcfd more by the end of that year.

“As many oil-focused producers implement significant production curtailments, one might think that this loss will also start to affect associated gas production soon. Still, associated gas production is not declining as quickly as the market had hoped for so far,“ says Rystad Energy’s Head of Shale Research Artem Abramov.

Most of the 11.5 Bcfd year-on-year output reduction till November will occur due to natural decline. Only about 1.7 Bcfd from the total decline will happen due to shut-in curtailments.

This outlook is based on a gradual recovery of the WTI oil price towards $35 per barrel and the Henry Hub gas price towards $2.5 per MMBtu in 1H21. The production outlook is based on our analysis of company guidance, base decline assessment and the most representative type of curves. Rapid reactivation requires stable WTI prices in the range of $30 to $35 per barrel already in 3Q20.

With a full recovery in LNG and domestic demand, we expect that we will enter 2021 with supply at least 6 Bcfd to 9 Bcfd lower than what the market would like to absorb next year. We believe Henry Hub prices will be in the $2.5 to $3.0 per MMBtu range to trigger the recovery in gas basins, so they are well-positioned to balance the upcoming supply deficit.