IEA：全球石油消费量尚未见顶

如果情况属实，这将对气候变化产生巨大影响，因为减少石油燃烧将永久性地减少温室气体排放，从而为实现《巴黎气候协定》的目标铺平道路。但比罗尔警告称，当前石油需求的减少只是暂时的，到2020年消费量将降至每日9100万桶左右，然后在2021年及以后反弹。

根据《巴黎气候协定》设定的远大目标——将气温升幅限制在1.5摄氏度以内，将要求到2030年使全球排放量减少一半左右，并在本世纪中叶左右达到净零排放。如果不进行深层次的结构性改革，预计当经济复苏时，排放量将再次上升。

IEA认为，全球石油需求将在未来10年继续增长，直到2030年左右达到一个平稳水平。该机构此前曾表示，到2030年，全球石油消费量可能达到约1.05亿桶/天，到2040年达到约1.06亿桶/天。

王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Hasn’t Yet Peaked, Energy Watchdog Predicts

Global oil consumption hasn’t peaked, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, throwing cold water on hopes the coronavirus will cap demand and reduce climate-changing emissions.

“In the absence of strong government policies, a sustained economic recovery and low oil prices are likely to take global oil demand back to where it was, and beyond,” Fatih Birol said in an interview.

If true, that would have huge implications for climate change as burning less oil would permanently reduce greenhouse emissions, easing the way to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. But Birol warned governments that the coronavirus will only reduce oil demand briefly, with consumption dipping in 2020 to about 91 million barrels a day, before rebounding in 2021 and beyond.

The more ambitious target set under the Paris climate agreement -- limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius -- will require annual global emissions to be reduced by about half by 2030 and to hit net-zero around the middle of the century. Without deep structural changes, emissions are expected to rise again when economies recover.

The IEA, which advises the world’s richest countries on oil policy, is sticking to its view that global oil demand will continue to increase over the next decade or so, before reaching a plateau around 2030. In a report published in November 2019, the agency said global petroleum consumption was likely to reach about 105 million barrels a day by 2030 and about 106 million by 2040.