美国页岩油产量要到明年才会恢复

中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价5月29日报道，精密钻探公司首席执行官凯文•内韦乌（Kevin Neveu）表示，美国页岩油产量可能需要一年的时间才能恢复增长。

内韦乌指出，页岩油生产商正在接受挑战，当然产量正在放缓，活动也在放缓，但要让产量再次复苏，勘探与生产公司最先突破口。

在2014年至2016年的上一次油价危机中，当供应趋紧、价格上涨时，就曾出现过这种情况。这种情况很可能会再次发生，且不能确定会在何时发生。

要让油价回到危机前的水平，我们需要看到需求的显著改善和供应的下降。就目前而言，后一种情况比前一种情况更有可能发生，因为政府已经采取了很多措施来减少供应，但却几乎无法刺激需求，而且这还不包括可能产生的第二波疫情的影响。

洪伟立 摘译自 今日油价

原文如下：

U.S. Shale Production Won't Bounce Back Until 2021

It could take a year before U.S. shale production starts to rise again, the chief executive of Precision Drilling Kevin Neveu told Bloomberg.

This could happen even if a hypothetical second wave of Covid-19 infections has a milder effect on the U.S. economy than the first one, and even if the economy rebounds, Neveu noted. However, it is U.S. shale that will lead the recovery in the wider oil industry, he also said.

“They’re [shale oil producers] taking it on the chin right now, and certainly production is slowing down and activity is slowing down, but it’s so quick and so easy to get that production flowing again that I think it will be one of the first places the E&P companies go,” Neveu told Bloomberg.

This is what has happened before when supply has tightened and prices have risen, during the last oil price crisis in 2014-2016. Chances are that it will happen again. When it will happen remains the open question.

For oil prices to get back to pre-crisis levels we would need to see significantly improved demand and lower supply. For now, there is a better chance for the latter than the former, and this is without factoring in a second wave of Covid-19 infections. This is simply because a lot is being done to shrink supply, yet there is little that can be done to stimulate demand.