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| 2020-06-01 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价5月29日报道，路透社周五援引分析师和投资银行的话报导称，原油和成品油库存庞大，供需最终达到平衡后，石油市场可能会在较长时间内处于溢价状态。 期货溢价是指期货价格高于现货价格的一种市场状况，是供应过剩的信号，也是交易商用来储存石油以备日后交割的一种市场状况。相反的市场状况——现货溢价，通常发生在市场出现赤字的时候，在这种情况下，近月合约的价格高于远期合约的价格。 包括高盛(Goldman Sachs)在内的一些分析师表示，石油市场的供需平衡最早可能在6月份就转为生产小于需求的情况。高盛表示，全球石油需求不断改善，加上欧佩克+协议以外国家减产速度快于预期，将导致6月份石油市场出现需求超过生产。然而，高盛在5月中旬的一份报告中表示，由于原油和成品油供应仍然严重过剩，短期内油价上涨的空间不大。 但路透社援引花旗的数据称，石油市场的期货溢价可能会持续更长时间，因有大量石油储存在海上。花旗表示:“实物基本面正在出现拐点，尽管浮式存储石油可能会给复苏投下阴影。” 在3月底和4月初除中国外的所有主要经济体都处于“高封锁”状态，石油市场处于期货溢价状态。随着石油需求的急剧下降，石油供应过剩不断加剧，储存能力不断萎缩,除此之外,欧佩克领导国和世界上最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯,意图进一步推高供应，直至与俄罗斯达成新的减产协议，情况才略有好转。 自5月初以来，需求已开始缓慢复苏，而供应则因欧佩克+的减产以及北美受经济因素推动的减产而减少。但库存中的大量石油，包括交易商租用油轮来浮式储油，可能令市场处于期货溢价状态。 王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价 原文如下 Oil Market Could See Long Term Contango The oil market could stay in a state of contango for longer after supply and demand finally balance due to the vast amount of crude and products in storage, Reuters reported on Friday, citing analysts and investment banks. Contango is the state of the market in which prices for delivery at later dates are higher than prompt prices—a market situation signaling oversupply and one which traders use to store oil for delivery at a later date. The opposite market situation—backwardation—typically occurs at times of market deficit and in it, prices for front-month contracts are higher than the ones further out in time. The supply and demand balance on the oil market could tip into deficit as early as in June, according to some analysts, including Goldman Sachs. Improving global oil demand and faster-than-expected production curtailments from outside the OPEC+ pact are set to push the oil market into deficit in June, according to Goldman Sachs. Yet, there is little room for an oil price rally in the near term because of the still sizeable oversupply of crude oil and refined products, Goldman Sachs said in a note in the middle of May. But the contango on the oil market could outlast the immediate deficit because of a high amount of oil on floating storage, according to data from Citi cited by Reuters. “An inflection point is happening in physical fundamentals, although oil-on-water may cast a shadow on the recovery,” according to Citi. During the ‘peak lockdown’ period when every major economy except China was under lockdown in late March and early April, the oil market was in a state of super contango. The glut was growing, storage capacity was shrinking as oil demand cratered, and on top of this, OPEC’s leader and the world’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, was intent on further cratering the market with a supply surge, before it sat down –urged by the U.S. – to forge a new deal with Russia for record production cuts. Since the beginning of May, demand has started to slowly recover while supply is coming off the market from the OPEC+ cuts and economics-driven curtailments in North America. But the sizable oil in storage, including floating storage for which traders have chartered tankers for at least six months, could keep the market in contango even though it could tip into deficit.
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