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| 2020-06-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据离岸能源6月8日消息，根据雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy）的数据，预计到2022年，海上风能的资本支出(CAPEX)将超过欧洲上游石油和天然气行业的支出。 分析师表示，疫情造成的石油市场崩溃将推迟西欧的一些油气开发，使海上油气部门的资本支出在2022年之前继续呈下降趋势。 鉴于多个项目的最终投资决定(FID)被推迟，海上石油和天然气的投资减少，再加上海上风能行业的活跃度增加，雷斯塔能源预计这两个市场最快将在明年达到投资平等。 2015年，欧洲用于海上风电的资本支出超过了100亿美元大关，此后一直徘徊在每年100亿至150亿美元之间。年资本支出水平预计将从2019年的约111亿美元上升到2020年的约138亿美元，2021年为182亿美元，2022年将超过220亿美元。 雷斯塔能源表示，丰富的石油供应和减少的需求对石油价格造成了影响，因此，欧洲海上油气上游的年度资本支出预计将从2019年的逾250亿美元下降到2022年的170亿美元以下。 雷斯塔能源的海上风电项目经理Alexander Flotre表示:“随着各国努力实现其雄心勃勃的2030年目标，欧洲海上风电的发展预计将在未来几年蓬勃发展，这将需要大量投资。” “预计到2025年，试运行活动将会增加，预计在2023-2025年投入运营的项目已经在推动2020年的资本支出。这一趋势将在未来几年持续下去。” 从历史上看，欧洲一直是海上风能开发的主要市场，在2019年底占全球装机容量的近80%。尽管未来几年中国、东南亚和美国预计将出现强劲增长，但欧洲的装机容量预计将在2025年之前保持第一的位置。 Flotre表示：“与传统的石油和天然气业务相比，许多服务公司已经过渡到越来越专注于海上风电活动。对这些企业来说，海上风电市场的成长为它们提供了一个适时的缓冲，缓解了传统油田服务领域投资下降带来的冲击。” 裘寅 编译自 离岸能源 原文如下： European offshore wind CAPEX to top upstream oil & gas in 2022 – Rystad Energy Capital expenditure (CAPEX) on offshore wind is expected to surpass upstream oil & gas spending in Europe in 2022, according to Rystad Energy. The oil market collapse caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is set to delay several oil and gas developments in Western Europe, putting capital expenditure in the offshore sector on a continued downwards trajectory through 2022, the analyst said. In light of the postponement of multiple final investment decisions (FIDs) on projects and lower investments in offshore oil and gas, coupled with increasing activity in the offshore wind sector, Rystad Energy expects that the two markets will reach parity as soon as next year. Capex towards offshore wind in Europe surpassed the USD 10 billion mark in 2015 and has since hovered in the range of USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion per year. Annual CAPEX levels are expected to rise from around USD 11.1 billion in 2019 to around USD 13.8 billion in 2020, USD 18.2 billion in 2021, and more than USD 22 billion in 2022. The abundant oil supply and reduced demand have taken their toll on the oil price, and consequently annual CAPEX towards upstream offshore oil and gas in Europe is expected to decline from more than USD 25 billion in 2019 to less than USD 17 billion in 2022, Rystad Energy said. “Offshore wind development in Europe is expected to flourish in the coming years as countries strive to reach their ambitious 2030-targets – and large investments will be required,” said Alexander Flotre, Rystad Energy’s project manager for offshore wind. “Commissioning activity is expected to increase towards 2025, and projects expected to be operational in 2023-2025 are already driving up capital expenditure in 2020. This trend will continue in the coming years.” Historically, Europe has been the key market for offshore wind development, accounting for almost 80% of global installed capacity at the end of 2019. While strong growth is expected in China, South East Asia, and the US in the years to come, Europe is expected to maintain its number one position through 2025 in terms of installed capacity. “Many service companies have already transitioned towards concentrating increasingly on offshore wind activities, compared to their legacy oil and gas business. For these players, the growth in the offshore wind market provides a well-timed cushion that softens the blow of declining investments in the traditional oilfield services sector,“ Flotre said.
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